Natural gas set to fall as cold spell relents

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 01/28/2013

METALS

COMEX Gold (April ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/24/13 @ 1668.50. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/25/13 @ 1658.80. Downside Target = 1640.50 – 1625.70
  • New lows made on current move Friday @ 1657.30.
  • April Gold dropped sharply lower in the second half of trading last week after breaking down Monday’s VRCB formation to close just off the weekly lows erasing the gains of the prior 2 weeks.
  • With the ST trend still remaining bullish, look for buyers to come back in to support the market on a violation of $1,650 to once again push the market back near the $1,700 threshold.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 38.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 90.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/24/12 @ 1.3378. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
  • Bullish ERVB generated on Friday making new highs on the current move @ 1.3485.
  • The March Euro FX moved sharply higher on Friday before stopping just three ticks shy of the 2012 highs yet closed outside both the daily and weekly RBB.
  • Look for a modest setback in early trading on Monday before buyer come back in to help continue the bullish momentum and press the market towards my Q1 upside objective of 1.3709.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0106
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0238
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0381

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 1399.25.
  • The March S&Ps formed their third consecutive VRCB week last week as the market continues to move higher despite peaking stochastic indicators and not experiencing a single ST setback since the beginning of 2013.
  • With psychological targets within narrow reach just above 1500, look for the S&Ps to break through that level and find heavy resistance near 1510.
  • Projected Daily Range: 12.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 33.75
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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