General Comments: Futures were lower as speculators sold long positions after the big rally on Thursday. Trends remain up as traders contemplate less planted area next year and strong export sales. Nearby months went down more than deferred months due to the liquidation trading. Bull spreads will be featured once again as the market tries to find some Cotton. Those looking for Cotton are having a tough time as supplies do not seem to be out there, or at least are not available to the market. Export sales have been strong for the last month to six weeks, and strong sales are expected to continue after another failed Chinese government auction held over the weekend. Buyers there said that the government wanted high prices for inferior Cotton and that they would continue to import even with higher taxes. The current low prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather features some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Delta areas will turn dry this week. Ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions, although a few showers are possible early this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get dry weather this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 75.16 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.112 million bales, from 0.110 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9100 March. Support is at 80.40, 79.90, and 78.00 March, with resistance of 84.00, 85.25, and 87.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed little changed in light volume trading. Weather remains good in Florida. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures to continue. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing, and the Valencia harvest is underway. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing normal temperatures and scattered showers. Harvest is continuing, so an increase in supplies should be expected at this time of year.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but showers are likely on Wednesday. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 110.00, 109.00, and 106.00 March, with resistance at 118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.
Next page: Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa
General Comments: Futures were higher on some short covering before the weekend. Trends turned down for the short term last week, but prices remain in the recent trading range longer term. Futures are testing support areas now. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial rain for the developing crop. Central America crops are mostly harvested. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a big issue as well. It is possible that many Central America and Mexico producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by this disease, and many seem to be affected. Crops in Central America will see some significant losses due to Roya next year, and some yields have been impacted this year. Yield losses could be 30% or more. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.619 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 132.98 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions this week and scattered showers and storms this weekend and into next week. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Vietnam exported 200,000 tons of Coffee in January, up 22.7% from December. Year to date exports are now 587,000 tons, from 371,000 tons last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 140.00 March. Support is at 145.50, 142.50, and 141.00 March, and resistance is at 151.50, 154.50, and 158.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1930, 1905, and 1900 March, and resistance is at 1965, 1980, and 1985 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 179.00 March. Support is at 179.50, 179.00, and 176.00 March, and resistance is at 182.00, 183.00, and 185.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in front months and little higher in deferred months in consolidation trading. Most traders still note that big supplies appear to be available to the market, and that is the main reason for weaker nearby futures. Demand is there, but not in big amounts as most buyers are not worried about prices. Most statistical organizations continue to look for a big surplus production for the year. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong after the delayed start to the program. Futures trends are down. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing pace remains slow. Traders wonder if and when India will cut offers to the market due to the lower prices and perhaps less than expected production due to some dry weather at the beginning of the growing season.
Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil this week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 March, and resistance is at 1860, 1885, and 1905 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 480.00, 475.00, and 470.00 March, and resistance is at 491.00, 495.00, and 496.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed lower. Good arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong, and the trend for strong arrivals from there should continue. However, arrivals from other west African countries are starting to move lower. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production deficit next year. Ivory Cost growing conditions are reported good right now as the Harmattan winds are subsiding without causing any real damage to crops. Some showers have been reported as well. The better weather is needed as it was too dry last year.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa, but some showers are expected. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.738 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2100 March. Support is at 2155, 2145, and 2115 March, with resistance at 2210, 2230, and 2250 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1410, 1405, and 1380 March, with resistance at 1455, 1465, and 1480 March.