Cocoa lower as African arrivals remain strong

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be speculative selling. Weather remains good in Florida, although more rain would be beneficial. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures to continue. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing normal temperatures and light showers or dry conditions. Better showers are likely this weekend. Harvest is continuing, so an increase in supplies should be expected at this time of year.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 119.00 and 125.00 March. Support is at 113.50, 110.00, and 109.00 March, with resistance at 118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower as funds and other speculators returned to sell for new positions. Trends turned down for the short term Tuesday, but prices remain in the recent trading range longer term. However, futures could drop more this week if more speculative selling shows up. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial rain for the developing crop. Central America crops are mostly harvested. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a big issue as well. It is possible that many Central America and Mexico producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by this disease, and many seem to be affected. Crops in Central America will see some significant losses due to Roya next year, and some yields have been impacted this year. Yield losses could be 30% or more. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.615 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 132.98 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions this week and scattered showers and storms this weekend and into next week. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.  LIFFE stocks are now 10,553 lots.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 140.00 March. Support is at 145.50, 142.50, and 141.00 March, and resistance is at 151.50, 154.50, and 158.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1935 and 1910 March. Support is at 1930, 1905, and 1900 March, and resistance is at 1965, 1980, and 1985 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 183.00, 182.00, and 179.50 March, and resistance is at 187.00, 190.00, and 193.00 March.

SUGAR                               

General Comments: Futures closed mostly a little lower in consolidation trading. Most traders still note that big supplies appear to be available to the market. Demand is there, but not in big amounts as most buyers are not worried about prices. Most statistical organizations continue to look for a big surplus production for the year. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong after the delayed start to the program. Futures trends are down. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing pace remains slow. Traders wonder if and when India will cut offers to the market due to the lower prices and perhaps less than expected production due to some dry weather at the beginning of the growing season.

Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal. China said it will sell 300,000 tons of Sugar from state reserves this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1830, 1800, and 1770 March, and resistance is at 1860, 1885, and 1905 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 480.00, 475.00, and 470.00 March, and resistance is at 495.00, 496.00, and 501.00 March.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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