Sugar rebounds after large Iraq purchase

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher again on what appeared to be speculative buying. Weather remains good in Florida, although more rain would be beneficial. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions to continue. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing normal temperatures and light showers or dry conditions. Better showers are likely this weekend. The USDA cold storage report showed increased supplies from the market, which mirrors the trend in the weekly data from the Florida Mutual Association. Harvest is continuing, so an increase in supplies should be expected at this time of year.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 119.00 and 125.00 March. Support is at 113.50, 110.00, and 109.00 March, with resistance at 118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were a little higher in consolidation trading. Trends turned down for the short term Tuesday, but prices remain in the recent trading range longer term. However, futures could drop more this week if more speculative selling shows up. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial rain for the developing crop. Central America crops are mostly harvested. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a big issue as well. It is possible that many Central America and Mexico producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by this disease, and many seem to be affected. Crops in Central America will see some significant losses due to Roya next year, and some yields have been impacted this year. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.612 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 135.61 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions this week and scattered showers and storms this weekend and into next week. Temperatures will average near normal. Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.  EU stocks were 9.55 million bags at the end of November, 3.2% less than the end of October.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 147.50 and 140.00 March. Support is at 148.00, 145.50, and 142.50 March, and resistance is at 154.50, 158.00, and 160.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1935 and 1910 March. Support is at 1930, 1905, and 1900 March, and resistance is at 1965, 1980, and 1990 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 183.00, 182.00, and 179.50 March, and resistance is at 187.00, 190.00, and 193.00 March.

COCOA                                

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher. Good arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong, and the trend for strong arrivals from there should continue. However, arrivals from other west African countries are starting to move lower. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. Ivory Cost growing conditions are reported good right now as the Harmattan winds are subsiding without causing any real damage to crops. Some showers have been reported as well. The better weather is needed as it was too dry last year.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa, but some showers ar expecte. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.798 million bags. Indonesian sources expect exports of Cocoa beans to drop as much as 26% this year as more of the crop gets processed by local grinders.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2185, 2175, and 2100 March. Support is at 2195, 2155, and 2145 March, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2275 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1425 March. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1405 March, with resistance at 1465, 1480, and 1500 March.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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