KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 113.15.
- March Brent Crude continued higher on Wednesday to extend its gains through the October highs at $112.82 and once again close outside the daily RBB.
- Brent’s price action indicates that this move should continue higher above $115 and near the Q3 ’12 spot contract highs of $117.95.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.28
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- Bearish OVB generated on Wednesday after making new highs on the current move @ 96.92.
- March WTI Crude Oil was unable to progress through the $97 mark on Wednesday as concerns over Thursday’s storage number growing once again dropped the market to its lowest close in four sessions.
- WTI is technically overbought in the short term but should see a rebound in prices on Thursday and an eventual settle above $96 for the week.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.39
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.08
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.359. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.373. Upside Targets = 3.583 – 3.628.
- Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
- March Natural Gas finished Wednesday’s session in a tight trading range after continually logging higher intraday lows and lower intraday highs ahead of Thursday’s storage report.
- While the northeast experiences extreme cold weather and heightens the prospect of higher natural gas prices over the short-term, Thursday will need to have a big pull to sustain the current buying support necessary to push the market higher or risk a setback to the low $3.40’s
- Projected Daily Range: .110
- Projected Weekly Range: .286
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
- February Gold was unable to follow through on Tuesday’s strong close as it generated confirmed bearish daily price action that sets up for a continued fall lower in early trading on Thursday.
- Unless gold is able to find some strong support just below $1,675 and rebound back near the week’s high, it could suffer additional declines for the remainder of the week and trade to the low $1,660’s.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
CURRENCIES
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/16/12 @ 1.3269. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
- The March Euro FX finished Wednesday’s session virtually unchanged despite making new 4 session lows and stopped just shy of breaking through last week’s lows as it continues to consolidate out to the side.
- The past 7 trading sessions have seen several volatile movements in the euro only to be negated by the following day’s price action and until the market can either close below 1.3262 or make new contract highs, look for the consolidation phase to continue.
- Projected Daily Range: .0105
- Projected Weekly Range: .0261
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
INDEXES
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
- Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday.
- The March S&Ps generated new closing highs on Wednesday in a very subdued trading range on lighter than average volumes awaiting major earnings reports from several key companies.
- With AAPL reporting less than stellar earnings on top of a market that has been showing technical signs of exhaustion, look for the recent ST run-up in prices to realize a skid going into the weekend and retest the week’s current lows.
- Projected Daily Range: 12.00
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
