Natural gas needs bullish pull to sustain higher prices

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 01/24/2013

 

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37.
  • New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 113.15.
  • March Brent Crude continued higher on Wednesday to extend its gains through the October highs at $112.82 and once again close outside the daily RBB.
  • Brent’s price action indicates that this move should continue higher above $115 and near the Q3 ’12 spot contract highs of $117.95.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.28
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Wednesday after making new highs on the current move @ 96.92.
  • March WTI Crude Oil was unable to progress through the $97 mark on Wednesday as concerns over Thursday’s storage number growing once again dropped the market to its lowest close in four sessions.
  • WTI is technically overbought in the short term but should see a rebound in prices on Thursday and an eventual settle above $96 for the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.39
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.08
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.18

Natural Gas (February ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.359. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.373. Upside Targets = 3.583 – 3.628.
  • Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
  • March Natural Gas finished Wednesday’s session in a tight trading range after continually logging higher intraday lows and lower intraday highs ahead of Thursday’s storage report.
  • While the northeast experiences extreme cold weather and heightens the prospect of higher natural gas prices over the short-term, Thursday will need to have a big pull to sustain the current buying support necessary to push the market higher or risk a setback to the low $3.40’s
  • Projected Daily Range: .110
  • Projected Weekly Range: .286
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492

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