KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- March Brent Crude moved back decisively higher on Friday to close at its best level since early Q4 despite generating an inside weekly VRCB.
- Look for Brent to have an early week setback and then make a move to new four-month highs above $112.82 and challenge the spot highs made in the second half of 2012 at $117.95.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.48
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- Inside VRCB generated on Friday.
- March WTI Crude Oil finished Friday’s tight trading session marginally higher and above $96 for the first time in four months.
- WTI is within less than $2 of the extended ST upside objective of $97.57 and will most likely meet strong resistance near than level, which is the price of the previous collapse in late September.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.42
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.08
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.359. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.373. Upside Targets = 3.583 – 3.628.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 3.579.
- February Natural Gas continued higher on Friday to fill the weekly close gap that was left in the market dating all the way back to 12/07/12 for its sixth day of gains out of the previous seven trading sessions.
- Natty has all but run out most of the traders still holding onto short positions as it nears the daily RBB and could continue to as high as my Q1 upside target of $3.782 before seeing further significant resistance and moving lower over an extended time period.
- Projected Daily Range: .116
- Projected Weekly Range: .286
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
- Inside compression day generated last Friday.
- February Gold missed generating a daily VRCB by just two ticks last Friday as it once again failed to break through the $1,700 mark following Thursday’s bullish OVB and new 2013 highs.
- With the ST trend having reversed from bearish to bullish just last week, look for gold to continue the current move to the $1,720 area before experiencing a ST correction and giving traders another opportunity to buy before making an extended run towards $1,780.
- Projected Daily Range: 17.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.90
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/16/12 @ 1.3269. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
- The March Euro FX dropped back lower on Friday as it gave back nearly all of the gains from the previous session as it was unable to break through to new highs on the current move.
- Friday’s price action insinuates a lower trading session to begin the new week and a possible re-test of last week’s lows.
- Projected Daily Range: .0090
- Projected Weekly Range: .0261
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1381.00.
- The March S&Ps moved modestly higher on Friday to their best weekly close in more than five years following Thursday’s explosive move through the 2012 highs.
- While the S&Ps did end the week on a positive note, the range reduction the market has sustained over the past two weeks is typical at the peaks and valleys of a market and without this week expanding rapidly with wide range and a strong close, the S&Ps could be in danger of setting up for a possible IT top.
- Projected Daily Range: 13.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
