Oil nears resistance at September top

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 01/22/2013

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
  • Inside compression day generated last Friday.
  • February Gold missed generating a daily VRCB by just two ticks last Friday as it once again failed to break through the $1,700 mark following Thursday’s bullish OVB and new 2013 highs.
  • With the ST trend having reversed from bearish to bullish just last week, look for gold to continue the current move to the $1,720 area before experiencing a ST correction and giving traders another opportunity to buy before making an extended run towards $1,780.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 47.90
  • Projected Monthly Range: 90.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/16/12 @ 1.3269. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
  • The March Euro FX dropped back lower on Friday as it gave back nearly all of the gains from the previous session as it was unable to break through to new highs on the current move.
  • Friday’s price action insinuates a lower trading session to begin the new week and a possible re-test of last week’s lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0090
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0261
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0381

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 1381.00.
  • The March S&Ps moved modestly higher on Friday to their best weekly close in more than five years following Thursday’s explosive move through the 2012 highs.
  • While the S&Ps did end the week on a positive note, the range reduction the market has sustained over the past two weeks is typical at the peaks and valleys of a market and without this week expanding rapidly with wide range and a strong close, the S&Ps could be in danger of setting up for a possible IT top.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.25
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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