Oil nears resistance at September top

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 01/22/2013


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
  • March Brent Crude moved back decisively higher on Friday to close at its best level since early Q4 despite generating an inside weekly VRCB.
  • Look for Brent to have an early week setback and then make a move to new four-month highs above $112.82 and challenge the spot highs made in the second half of 2012 at $117.95.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.48
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.34
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
  • Inside VRCB generated on Friday.
  • March WTI Crude Oil finished Friday’s tight trading session marginally higher and above $96 for the first time in four months.
  • WTI is within less than $2 of the extended ST upside objective of $97.57 and will most likely meet strong resistance near than level, which is the price of the previous collapse in late September.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.42
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.08
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.18

Natural Gas (February ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.359. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.373. Upside Targets = 3.583 – 3.628.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 3.579.
  • February Natural Gas continued higher on Friday to fill the weekly close gap that was left in the market dating all the way back to 12/07/12 for its sixth day of gains out of the previous seven trading sessions.
  • Natty has all but run out most of the traders still holding onto short positions as it nears the daily RBB and could continue to as high as my Q1 upside target of $3.782 before seeing further significant resistance and moving lower over an extended time period.
  • Projected Daily Range: .116
  • Projected Weekly Range: .286
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492

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