KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- March Brent Crude moved back decisively higher on Friday to close at its best level since early Q4 despite generating an inside weekly VRCB.
- Look for Brent to have an early week setback and then make a move to new four-month highs above $112.82 and challenge the spot highs made in the second half of 2012 at $117.95.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.48
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.34
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- Inside VRCB generated on Friday.
- March WTI Crude Oil finished Friday’s tight trading session marginally higher and above $96 for the first time in four months.
- WTI is within less than $2 of the extended ST upside objective of $97.57 and will most likely meet strong resistance near than level, which is the price of the previous collapse in late September.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.42
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.08
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.359. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.373. Upside Targets = 3.583 – 3.628.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 3.579.
- February Natural Gas continued higher on Friday to fill the weekly close gap that was left in the market dating all the way back to 12/07/12 for its sixth day of gains out of the previous seven trading sessions.
- Natty has all but run out most of the traders still holding onto short positions as it nears the daily RBB and could continue to as high as my Q1 upside target of $3.782 before seeing further significant resistance and moving lower over an extended time period.
- Projected Daily Range: .116
- Projected Weekly Range: .286
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.About the Author
