Stock market advances despite weak indicators

Weekly Review: MAAD, CPFL indicator analysis


Conclusion

The stock market continues to inch higher with sporadic confirmation relative to previous highs and resistance levels coming from pricing and indicators. But unlike the first leg up in this bull market that lasted from March 2009 through early May 2011, the lack of indicator confirmation is notable. Imagine higher highs and higher lows in prices, net, since March 2009, but higher highs and higher lows in indicators until May 2011 in indicators. And then lower highs in indicators for the better part of the past two years.

As we have pointed out before, the S&P rallied nearly 106% during the first 26 months of this long-term bull trend while in nearly the same amount of time it has rallied less than 8.5%. But since higher prices and positive trends do not a bear market make, as we’ve also noted before, the smart play at this juncture remains one of vigilance with protective stops on the downside. Imagine a terminal patient increasingly on life support with an uncertain amount of time left to live.

MAAD daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL daily data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

12-6-12

13

7

12-6-12

11237

9199

12-7-12

14

5

12-7-12

21423

8692

12-10-12

12

8

12-10-12

5801

8010

12-11-12

16

4

12-11-12

58541

16935

12-12-12

14

6

12-12-12

14037

29016

12-13-12

5

15

12-13-12

16200

21122

12-14-12

11

8

12-14-12

755

2204

12-17-12

16

4

12-17-12

3965

2127

12-18-12

16

4

12-18-12

54268

15407

12-19-12

8

10

12-19-12

23234

17820

12-20-12

15

4

12-20-12

60116

9429

12-21-12

1

19

12-21-12

113448

24330

12-24-12

7

11

12-24-12

12273

4633

12-25-12

Holiday

 

12-25-12

Holiday

 

12-26-12

10

10

12-26-12

13183

9095

12-27-12

4

16

12-27-12

13740

15048

12-28-12

3

17

12-28-12

9876

20514

12-31-12

19

0

12-31-12

66137

7704

1-1-13

Holiday

 

1-1-13

Holiday

 

1-2-13

18

2

1-2-13

41038

18210

1-3-13

8

12

1-3-13

27988

14827

1-4-13

16

4

1-4-13

15918

9326

1-7-13

8

12

1-7-13

12111

9021

1-8-13

5

15

1-8-13

30884

8826

1-9-13

11

9

1-9-13

6980

9587

1-10-13

17

3

1-10-13

17253

12394

1-11-13

10

10

1-11-13

21372

8073

1-14-13

8

11

1-14-13

25044

8390

1-15-13

10

10

1-15-13

6735

7626

1-16-13

10

10

1-16-13

9145

14231

1-17-13

11

8

1-17-13

17630

15208

1-18-13

12

7

1-18-13

30618

15985

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

6-29-12

11

9

6-29-12

215980

45870

7-6-12

9

11

7-6-12

22987

66734

7-13-12

7

13

7-13-12

115325

165598

7-20-12

11

9

7-20-12

155286

106164

7-27-12

15

5

7-27-12

469554

55021

8-3-12

14

4

8-3-12

189964

56326

8-10-12

18

2

8-10-12

127913

51441

8-17-12

11

9

8-17-12

168381

34193

8-24-12

5

14

8-24-12

61567

91299

8-31-12

4

16

8-31-12

27713

56889

9-7-12

17

2

9-7-12

192729

30202

9-14-12

17

3

9-14-12

295058

62406

9-21-12

4

16

9-21-21

140898

41443

9-28-12

6

14

9-28-28

68066

104869

10-5-12

15

5

10-5-12

82790

46425

10-12-12

4

16

10-12-12

23119

203431

10-19-12

10

10

10-19-12

40632

219576

10-26-12

6

14

10-26-12

43539

151159

11-2-12

15

5

11-2-12

31681

39436

11-9-12

0

20

11-9-12

51223

261506

11-16-12

3

17

11-16-12

104817

333252

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

11-30-12

12

8

11-30-12

152468

59828

12-7-12

15

5

12-7-12

53407

49271

12-14-12

10

10

12-14-12

51445

98445

12-21-12

14

6

12-21-12

216650

126720

12-28-12

5

15

12-28-12

19431

48587

1-4-13

19

1

1-4-13

142605

25100

1-11-13

13

5

1-11-13

90566

22250

1-18-13

11

8

1-18-13

75858

37446

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

 

<< Page 5 of 5
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

Comments
comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome