Natural gas gains on storage report, risks profit taking

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 01/18/2013

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
  • Bullish EROVB (Extended Range OVB) generated on Thursday making new highs on the current move @ 1697.80.
  • February Gold followed through on my projection in Wednesday evenings report as it dropped in overnight trading only to rally to make new highs for the year while stopping just shy of the $1,700 threshold.
  • Now that Gold has generated new highs in the second half of the trading month, expect for the entire projected month range to be trading to the upside and set the stage for another 3 ½ weeks of upside momentum.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.60
  • Projected Weekly Range: 41.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 90.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/16/12 @ 1.3269. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
  • Bullish Close Reversal generated on Thursday.
  • The March Euro FX abruptly reversed course on Thursday as the “risk-on” trade returned and the FX generated new closing highs for the move.
  • The current price action indicates that next week should see the euro break through to new contract highs as well as a push through the 2012 highs while eclipsing the 1.35 mark.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0106
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0251
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0381

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
  • The March S&Ps exploded higher on Thursday as they broke through the 2012 highs and made new five-year highs in the process.
  • Although the S&Ps broke through to new multi-year highs, unless they trade to 1482 on Friday it will generate a weekly double VRCB combination against the Intermediate Term RBB that may spell trouble for the market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 13.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 49.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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