KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- March Brent Crude was able to rally back higher on Thursday as the see-sawing trading action continued another day but did close at its third highest level in three months.
- The current trading range for the week indicates that unless Brent trades to at least $112.37 on Friday it will generate and weekly VRCB and set the stage for the decline mentioned in Wednesday evenings report down to the $105-$106 level.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.64
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.53
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- Bullish ERVB generated on Thursday making new highs on current move @ 96.04.
- February WTI Crude Oil exploded to the upside on Thursday as it once again impacted the daily RBB and settled at its highest level in four months.
- As the Feb contract goes into its roll to March, look for a modest decline lower after a substantial increase in price throughout the week.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.57
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.359. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.373. Upside Targets = 3.583 – 3.628.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 3.529.
- February Natural Gas rocketed higher on Thursday because of a bullish surprise in storage withdrawals as it made new three-week highs.
- Natural gas stopped just shy of the previous confirmed top in the market to last trade significantly off the days’ high as the market reached the upper limits of the $3.48-$3.52 resistance zone mentioned in Tuesday afternoon’s report and could be in for a profit taking decline to end the week.
- Projected Daily Range: .126
- Projected Weekly Range: .286
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
- Bullish EROVB (Extended Range OVB) generated on Thursday making new highs on the current move @ 1697.80.
- February Gold followed through on my projection in Wednesday evenings report as it dropped in overnight trading only to rally to make new highs for the year while stopping just shy of the $1,700 threshold.
- Now that Gold has generated new highs in the second half of the trading month, expect for the entire projected month range to be trading to the upside and set the stage for another 3 ½ weeks of upside momentum.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 41.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/16/12 @ 1.3269. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
- Bullish Close Reversal generated on Thursday.
- The March Euro FX abruptly reversed course on Thursday as the “risk-on” trade returned and the FX generated new closing highs for the move.
- The current price action indicates that next week should see the euro break through to new contract highs as well as a push through the 2012 highs while eclipsing the 1.35 mark.
- Projected Daily Range: .0106
- Projected Weekly Range: .0251
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1469.25. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50 – 1505.25*.
- The March S&Ps exploded higher on Thursday as they broke through the 2012 highs and made new five-year highs in the process.
- Although the S&Ps broke through to new multi-year highs, unless they trade to 1482 on Friday it will generate a weekly double VRCB combination against the Intermediate Term RBB that may spell trouble for the market.
- Projected Daily Range: 13.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 49.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
