KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- March Brent Crude traded to within five ticks of the projected upside target mentioned in Tuesday evening’s report before dropping to make new lows for the week.
- If Brent closes below $108.90 during the rest of the week it will confirm a ST top in the market and set up a decline back down near the $105-$106 level next week.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.58
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.53
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- February WTI Crude Oil once again outpaced Brent on Wednesday as it generated its highest close in five months but was unable to break through to new highs on the week.
- After a 1 million barrel draw in crude supplies, WTI exhibited strong bullish price action but the inability to make new highs on the week could lead to a setback in prices on Thursday as WTI remains in a restricted trading range.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.27
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.359. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.373. Upside Targets = 3.583 – 3.628.
- Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
- February Natural Gas backed off in mid-day trading on Wednesday near the current weekly mid-range before staging a solid rally into the end of the session to close in the upper 80% of the trading range.
- Feb natural gas still has an 86% probability of taking out Tuesday’s high before its low but will most likely face strong resistance near $3.50 ahead of Thursday’s storage number.
- Projected Daily Range: .101
- Projected Weekly Range: .286
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
- Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday.
- February Gold once again settled just off the session’s highs on Wednesday but with little volatility and was unable to break through to new weekly highs as it nears the daily RBB.
- Expect an early setback in prices before the market finds any support and challenges the weekly highs.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 41.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/16/12 @ 1.3269. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
- The March Euro FX finished Wednesday’s session just a shade lower and has fallen more than 150 points from the highs made earlier in the week while closing at today’s mid-range.
- The euro could continue to sag a bit lower in the coming days but this setback should be used as a buying opportunity in a market that statistically sets up for a push above 1.37 by the end of Q1.
- Projected Daily Range: .0091
- Projected Weekly Range: .0251
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1460.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
- The March S&Ps remained stuck in the same monotonous trading range it has been stuck in over the past six sessions on Wednesday, extending the close cluster formation as the market searches for direction.
- Again, as mentioned in Tuesday evening’s report, this market looks to be range bound between 1450 – 1475 over the short-term before a major setback to at least 1420 around the mid-point of Q1.
- Projected Daily Range: 10.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 49.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
