Oil risks setback without making new highs

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 01/17/2013


COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
  • Inside VRCB generated on Wednesday.
  • February Gold once again settled just off the session’s highs on Wednesday but with little volatility and was unable to break through to new weekly highs as it nears the daily RBB.
  • Expect an early setback in prices before the market finds any support and challenges the weekly highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 41.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 90.30


Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/16/12 @ 1.3269. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
  • The March Euro FX finished Wednesday’s session just a shade lower and has fallen more than 150 points from the highs made earlier in the week while closing at today’s mid-range.
  • The euro could continue to sag a bit lower in the coming days but this setback should be used as a buying opportunity in a market that statistically sets up for a push above 1.37 by the end of Q1.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0091
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0251
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0381


E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/15/13 @ 1460.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
  • The March S&Ps remained stuck in the same monotonous trading range it has been stuck in over the past six sessions on Wednesday, extending the close cluster formation as the market searches for direction.
  • Again, as mentioned in Tuesday evening’s report, this market looks to be range bound between 1450 – 1475 over the short-term before a major setback to at least 1420 around the mid-point of Q1.
  • Projected Daily Range: 10.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 49.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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