KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- March Brent Crude rebounded nicely from Friday’s sharp drop lower where it made new 2013 lows as it outpaced WTI significantly to increase the spread back to nearly $17.
- If Brent can continue to push higher this week it could make new 2013 highs and possibly trade to the $115 threshold by mid-next week.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.86
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.53
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- February WTI Crude Oil generated new closing highs on the current move Monday to close at its highest level since mid-September.
- Based on current price action, WTI should trade above $96 by week’s end before breaking through to the IT upside objective of $97.57.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.48
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.359. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/14/2013 @ 3.373. Upside Targets = 3.583 – 3.628.
- February Natural Gas gapped higher in overnight trading Sunday evening and broke through the $3.40 mark for the first time in 2013 before dropping off the session’s highs and closing at the daily mid-point.
- If natural gas is able to continue its bullish momentum higher on Tuesday and close above $3.42, this market could jump drastically as shorts begin to exit and give natural gas room to run up to $3.50.
- Projected Daily Range: .113
- Projected Weekly Range: .286
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
- Inside compression day generated on Monday.
- February gold reclaimed some of its lost gains on Monday but was unable to break through to new highs on the current move as it closed just above the 20-day MA.
- Gold unfortunately will not be able to make its IT push higher near the $1,750 level until it can close above last week’s high of $1,678.80 and will continue to be dropped back around the $1,650 level.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 41.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/12 @ 1.3129. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
- New highs made on current move Monday @ 1.3414.
- The March Euro FX made new contract highs on Monday for the second consecutive trading day while closing near the daily RBB and achieving the first of my 2 ST upside objectives to the tick.
- There is little resistance left for the euro until it reaches the psychological resistance point of 1.35 and the 2012 highs so expect tighter volatility until that level is breached.
- Projected Daily Range: .0110
- Projected Weekly Range: .0251
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/10/13 @ 1459.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
- Bearish AOVB generated on Monday.
- The March S&Ps gave back some significant ground to begin the new week as it was unable to generate new contract highs or break the 2012 highs at 1474.50.
- The S&Ps may see a relatively range bound trading session on Tuesday as it bounces between 1460 and 1470 between multiple economic data points released in the morning.
- Projected Daily Range: 11.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 49.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
