Grains higher as winter moisture is lacking

Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 25 higher at 146’08 and Mar. 10 Yr. Notes 11 higher at 132’12. My bias remains to the short side of the market on rallies above the 146’20 level. An important level to watch will be the 200-day moving average for a lead month contract, which is currently at 147’29.

Grains: March Corn is currently o’6 higher at 724’6, March Beans 7’4 higher at 1425’4 and March Wheat 4’4 higher at 771’4. Since the release of last Friday’s Crop Report we have had rallies across the board in the grains. What is a bit surprising to me is yesterday’s sharp rally in beans after their failure to hold any gains in the aftermath of the report on Friday. At the moment I am looking at resistance in March Corn in the 740’0 area, March Beans the 1460’0 area and March Wheat the 795’0 area. Support for March Corn is current 707’0, March Beans 1380’0 area and March Wheat the 745’0. At the moment I do not have a strong opinion to either side of the market at current prices and will just look to be a buyer at support and a seller at resistance. Of note: I feel it is time to start watching new crop contracts (Dec. Corn and Wheat, Nov. Beans). The lack of moisture this winter could be setting us up for a bull market. Time to watch S. American crops. Stay tuned.

Cattle: Feb. LC is currently slightly higher at 130.40 and Mar. FC 20 lower at 151.22. For the near term I will be a seller in Feb. LC above the 132.70 level and a buyer below the 128.00 level.

Silver: March Silver is currently 5 cents higher at $31.16 and Feb. Gold is $7.00 higher at $1,677.00. We remain long silver. If you went long on last Friday’s recommendation to go long gold in the $1,657.00 area either take profits or use a protective sell stop in the $1,667.00 area.

S&Ps: March S&Ps are currently 4.50 lower at 1459.50. We remain short with a protective buy stop in the 1480.00 area. If the market trades below the 1456.00 level, either take profits or lower your buy stop to the 1475.00 level. If the market trades below 1453.00, lower your buy stop to 1463.00. Near term support is currently the 1447.00 level. If this level does not hold the next level of support will be 1438.00.

Currencies: As of this writing the March Euro is currently 50 lower at 1.3335, the Swiss 93 lower at 1.0762, the Yen 74 higher at 1.1267 and the Pound 45 lower at 1.6038. If you went short the Euro above the 1.3360 level either take the short term profit or lower you protective buy stop to the 1.3430 level.

About the Author
Marc Nemenoff

Mr. Nemenoff is a 40-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Over the years he grew to become an independent member of the exchange and spent many years as a trader, market maker, lecturer, and committee member. Since 2004 Marc has been a senior broker and analyst handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers in addition to institutional traders. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets that includes his own perspective on market direction. Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental and is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy. You can contact Marc by phone at (888) 908-4310 or by email at mnemenoff@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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