COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were mostly a little lower in Sao Paulo and New York, but higher in London. Charts still show that all three markets are trying to complete a bottom and might have got the job done. There is more and more talk that the market is getting ready to rally in New York after all the selling seen in the past months. Speculators have been very short and all the news has pointed to lower prices, so it would not take much in the way of bullish news to change the short term trend. Current crop development is good this year in Brazil, and production areas are getting beneficial rain for the developing crop. However, some are noting dry conditions in northern production areas. Central and northern Brazil are expected to get some rain this week, though, and some central areas got some rain yesterday. Central America crops are getting harvested, and conditions are called good there. There are widespread reports of rust on the trees and leaves, and Roya has become a big issue as well. It is possible that many Central America and Mexico producers will harvest much less Coffee next year if they are affected by this disease, and many seem to be affected. We are already hearing significant loss estimates for the next crop due to Roya. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.5898 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 138.10 ct/lb. Brazil should get scattered showers and storms through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get mostly dry conditions, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible in central and eastern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 158.00, 1609.00, and 170.00 March. Support is at 149.00, 146.00, and 143.00 March, and resistance is at 157.00, 160.00, and 162.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2100 and 2290 March. Support is at 1945, 1930, and 1910 March, and resistance is at 1975, 1990, and 2000 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 199.00 March. Support is at 187.00, 184.50, and 183.50 March, and resistance is at 193.50, 195.00, and 196.00 March.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were mixed to a little lower in consolidation trading. Traders were still reacting to the USDA reports. The domestic reports were bullish, but the world reports showed big supplies. There are still ideas that Cotton demand can hold strong and support U.S. prices. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower next year here in the U.S. because of weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather features some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Trends are not well defined on the charts, but ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall. Wire reports indicate that the first Chinese auction of Cotton into the domestic market failed due to poor quality.
Overnight News: The Delta will be dry all week and Southeast will get showers or rains through Thursday, then will see dry conditions move from west to east the balance of the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 70.94 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.101 million bales, from 0.100 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 74.40, 73.70, and 73.25 March, with resistance of 76.40, 76.95, and 77.05 March.
Next page: Orange Juice, Sugar and Cocoa
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower as warm and dry weather continued in Florida. It has been cold in California where some of the citrus could be affected, but so far there have been no reports of losses. Much of the California crop goes to fresh consumption and not juice, but the total supply of Oranges could be affected, something that might help prices given the losses reported already in Florida due to the greening disease. Weather remains good in Florida, although more rain would be beneficial. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions to continue. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and light showers or dry conditions.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 111.00, 109.00, and 108.00 March, with resistance at 115.00, 118.00, and 122.00 March.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower on reports of beneficial rains in Brazil and on no real demand news. The market found support despite news from Brazil of increased production. Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, but the areas with the best weather have been in the Center-South region. The rains over the weekend were in the north where conditions had been too dry. Futures are in a trading range, but trends are turning down. News of any kind remains hard for the traders to find. There was no demand news to support values. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too. Conditions still look good for many production areas. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing pace is called slow right now. Traders wonder if and when India will cut offers to the market due to the lower prices. Brazil production continues strong.
Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1880, 1850, and 1830 March, and resistance is at 1925, 1945, and 1960 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 502.00, 500.00, and 495.00 March, and resistance is at 515.00, 520.00, and 524.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher again in consolidation trading. Traders in both London and New York were waiting for the EU grind data. The data was released after the close and was lower than had been expected by the trade and should result in lowr prices today. The US data will be released later this week. Good arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong, and the trend for strong arrivals from there should continue. Ghana producers are reported to be selling as well. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. The market needs some demand news or some other news to shake it out of the sideways to lower trade, but the EU and Ivory Coast data implies that a lower trade can continue.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.858 million bags. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 863,000 tons, from 775,000 tons last year. The EU Cocoa grind was 327,982 tons in the fourth quarter, down 6.2% from the year earlier. Totoal grindings for 2012 were 1.29 million tons, down more than 10% from 2011.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2230, 2205, and 2195 March, with resistance at 2295, 2325, and 2355 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1490 and 1535 March. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1405 March, with resistance at 1465, 1490, and 1510 March.
