Orange juice higher after USDA highlights production loss


General Comments: Futures closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports that showed more production losses in Florida due to the greening disease. A weaker US Dollar helped support prices. Weather remains good in Florida, although more rain would be beneficial. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions to continue, but temperatures could drop a bit starting this weekend. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Winter is here, and with Winter comes the threat for a freeze to Oranges and other fruits grown in Florida, but there is no real cold weather in the forecast. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and light showers or dry conditions.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 185 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 111.00, 109.00, and 108.00 March, with resistance at 115.00, 118.00, and 122.00 March.


General Comments: Futures were a little higher again in reaction to the USDA reports. The domestic reports were bullish, but the world reports showed big supplies. A weaker US Dollar helped demand ideas, and ideas are that the overall pace of export sales remains strong. However, export sales have been fading the last couple of weeks after being very strong to finish 2012. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower next year here in the US because of weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather features some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Trends are not well defined on the charts, but ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.

Overnight News: The Delta will be dry all week and Southeast will get rains today and tomorrow, then will see dry conditions move from west to east the balance of the week. Temperatures will average above normal east of the front and below normal west of the front. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 70.86 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.100 million bales, from 0.099 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 74.40, 73.70, and 73.25 March, with resistance of 75.90, 76.40, and 76.95 March.

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