KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- March Brent Crude dropped significantly lower on Friday because of speculation over large amounts of European tankers arriving in the near future along with the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged.
- Look for a little rebuilding on Monday back to the upside and a move near $111 before hitting resistance again and another possible drop lower.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.61
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.53
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
- February WTI Crude Oil reclaimed some early session losses on Friday moving into the weekly settle to make new pit session highs after an overnight correction to close at its highest weekly level in nearly four months.
- WTI should continue to build on its recent gains despite a narrowing of the weekly trading ranges and go after the ST upside objectives by week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.36
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.15
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
- February Natural Gas exploded higher on Friday to end the week up more than $0.21 cents in the last two trading sessions after a bullish revision to extended weather forecast and the largest storage withdrawal of the season.
- Friday’s positive price action may turn out to be more than just a short-covering rally as the market should gather momentum above $3.36 for a push all the ways to $3.45 before meeting further resistance.
- Projected Daily Range: .127
- Projected Weekly Range: .286
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
- February Gold gapped lower from Thursday’s settle as it gave back nearly all of its weekly gains to settle just below the weekly mid-point but yet still at its highest level in four weeks.
- The intermediate term outlook still looks positive for gold and with a move above last week’s high it should have garnered enough momentum to finally crack through $1,700
- Projected Daily Range: 21.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 41.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/12 @ 1.3129. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
- New 9 month highs made on Friday @ 1.3373.
- The March Euro FX continued to move higher on Friday following the ECB and the BOE’s decision to leave rates unchanged as it looks to break through the 1.35 level, as projected months ago, for the first time in over a year.
- Although the euro nearly closed outside the daily RBB, expect another push even higher on Monday as the market may soon track down my Q1 upside objective of 1.3709.
- Projected Daily Range: .0112
- Projected Weekly Range: .0251
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/10/13 @ 1459.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1471.50.
- The March S&Ps moved to new contract highs on Friday and stopped just a mere 3 points from breaking through the 2012 highs before settling back near the daily mid-point.
- Look for the S&Ps to resume trading higher in early Monday trading and possibly to 1485 by mid-week before running into any further resistance.
- Projected Daily Range: 11.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 49.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
