Natural gas runs higher on weather, inventory draw

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 01/14/2013

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/09/13 @ 1664.60. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1678.00. Upside Target = 1696.40 – 1725.10
  • February Gold gapped lower from Thursday’s settle as it gave back nearly all of its weekly gains to settle just below the weekly mid-point but yet still at its highest level in four weeks.
  • The intermediate term outlook still looks positive for gold and with a move above last week’s high it should have garnered enough momentum to finally crack through $1,700
  • Projected Daily Range: 21.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 41.30
  • Projected Monthly Range: 90.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/12 @ 1.3129. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 01/10/13 @ 1.3149. Upside Targets = 1.3414 – 1.3511.
  • New 9 month highs made on Friday @ 1.3373.
  • The March Euro FX continued to move higher on Friday following the ECB and the BOE’s decision to leave rates unchanged as it looks to break through the 1.35 level, as projected months ago, for the first time in over a year.
  • Although the euro nearly closed outside the daily RBB, expect another push even higher on Monday as the market may soon track down my Q1 upside objective of 1.3709.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0112
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0251
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0381

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/10/13 @ 1459.75. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
  • New highs made on current move Friday @ 1471.50.
  • The March S&Ps moved to new contract highs on Friday and stopped just a mere 3 points from breaking through the 2012 highs before settling back near the daily mid-point.
  • Look for the S&Ps to resume trading higher in early Monday trading and possibly to 1485 by mid-week before running into any further resistance.
  • Projected Daily Range: 11.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 49.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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