Natural gas runs higher on weather, inventory draw

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 01/14/2013


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (March ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/11/13 @ 109.13. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.17. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
  • March Brent Crude dropped significantly lower on Friday because of speculation over large amounts of European tankers arriving in the near future along with the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged.
  • Look for a little rebuilding on Monday back to the upside and a move near $111 before hitting resistance again and another possible drop lower.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.61
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.53
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
  • February WTI Crude Oil reclaimed some early session losses on Friday moving into the weekly settle to make new pit session highs after an overnight correction to close at its highest weekly level in nearly four months.
  • WTI should continue to build on its recent gains despite a narrowing of the weekly trading ranges and go after the ST upside objectives by week’s end.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.36
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.15
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.18

Natural Gas (February ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
  • February Natural Gas exploded higher on Friday to end the week up more than $0.21 cents in the last two trading sessions after a bullish revision to extended weather forecast and the largest storage withdrawal of the season.
  • Friday’s positive price action may turn out to be more than just a short-covering rally as the market should gather momentum above $3.36 for a push all the ways to $3.45 before meeting further resistance.
  • Projected Daily Range: .127
  • Projected Weekly Range: .286
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492

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