Natural gas rebounds on large storage withdrawal

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 01/11/2013

KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 111.79. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
  • New 3 month highs made on current move Thursday @ 113.29.
  • February Brent Crude broke out in early trading to multi-month highs on the heels of the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged but fell hard into the close on Chinese inflation fears.
  • Thursday’s price action is technically very bearish and with a close below the low on Friday could signal an end to the recent ST rally that has pushed the market $8 high and drop the market to $109 by next week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.39
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.33
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
  • New highs made on current move Thursday @ 94.70.
  • February WTI Crude Oil was able to hang onto its early gains better than its counterpart going into the close as it still settled near the day’s mid-range while breaking through the Q4 ’12 spot contract highs.
  • WTI will need to trade above $94.89 on Friday or else it will generate a WIMP week that could possibly put an end to the 10-week rally off the early November lows.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.24
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.74
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.18

Natural Gas (February ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
  • Inside compression day generated on Thursday.
  • February Natural Gas regained some of its lost momentum on Thursday after the largest storage withdrawal in nearly two years helped settle the market back near $3.20.
  • Natural gas has been severely battered during this week because of original warm weather forecasts that have since been tempered and should see the market pick up some steam to move back near $3.25 on Friday.
  • Projected Daily Range: .108
  • Projected Weekly Range: .274
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492

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