Natural gas falls before expected inventory withdrawal

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 01/10/2013


KEY TERMS

OVB       Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB    Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 111.79. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
  • February Brent Crude finished the session slightly lower after rebounding in the second half of the day following a build of inventories while closing just below $112.
  • Look for Brent to move toward new weekly highs on Thursday as the market looks to extend its recent gains and eventually break through the Q4 ’12 highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.21
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.33
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 96.36 – 97.57.
  • February WTI Crude Oil finished nearly unchanged on Wednesday in a very tight trading range after a smaller than expected build in inventories brought market back higher in the second half of trading.
  • Look for WTI to follow the same path as Brent on Thursday and make new weekly highs as it goes after the upside objective of $96.36.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.51
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.74
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.18

Natural Gas (February ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
  • February Natural Gas sank lower again on Wednesday to generate new contract closing lows as it tore through the intraday support below $3.16.
  • Look for an early morning short-covering rally to begin Thursday followed by trader’s reaction to the 9:30 CST EIA storage report in which estimates are for the largest draw of the season.
  • Projected Daily Range: .111
  • Projected Weekly Range: .274
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492

Page 1 of 2 >>
Comments
comments powered by Disqus