SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what was called speculative long liquidation. Futures are in a trading range, but trends are turning down. News of any kind remains hard for the traders to find. There was no demand news to support values. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too, although there are more reports of slow harvest progress in Thailand. Conditions still look good for many production areas. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing pace is called slow right now. Brazil production continues strong.
Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1810 March. Support is at 1860, 1830, and 1800 March, and resistance is at 1910, 1925, and 1945 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 494.00 March. Support is at 505.00, 502.00, and 500.00 March, and resistance is at 516.00, 520.00, and 524.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower. Good arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong, and the trend for strong arrivals from there should continue. Ghana producers are reported to be selling as well. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress. Demand is reported weaker from the U.S. and Europe, in part because of current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. The market needs some demand news or some other news to shake it out of the sideways to lower trade. This news could come on as the main West Africa harvest should be about over and there is a lot of talk that production next year will be less.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply lower today at 3.798 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2205, 2195, and 2155 March, with resistance at 2275, 2290, and 2325 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1410, 1405, and 1380 March, with resistance at 1450, 1455, and 1490 March.
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Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.About the Author
