Stock indexes see rough road before debt ceiling fight

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 01/09/2013

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 111.79. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
  • February Brent Crude made new four-session highs on Tuesday as it led the energy sector higher on the day yet was unable to close above the $112 mark.
  • Brent has lagged WTI in recent weeks and unless it can close above $112.20 on a weekly level it may continue to trade back and forth around the $110 mark until the debt ceiling issue draws near.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.33
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 90.10 – 90.68.
  • February WTI Crude Oil actually settled lower on the session despite trading to within 7 cents of new multi-month highs as it closed below the day’s mid-range.
  • Look for WTI to fall modestly lower on Wednesday as the EIA storage numbers are released in the midst of a technical close cluster pattern near the Q4 ’12 highs.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.74
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.18

Natural Gas (February ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
  • February Natural Gas dropped lower on Tuesday as it settled below Monday’s low yet just above the daily SBB.
  • After finding support near last week’s intraday consolidation zone from $2.16 – $2.20, look for a move back to the upside through the end of the week and a challenge of $3.40.
  • Projected Daily Range: .100
  • Projected Weekly Range: .274
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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