KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 1450.50. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
- The March S&Ps continued their drop lower to begin the week on Tuesday but battled back to close above the daily mid-range as the S&Ps remain very resilient heading into earnings reports.
- I expect the S&Ps to drop back to 1420 over the coming weeks where it should then find some support until we approach what will become the debt ceiling “crisis.”
- Projected Daily Range: 11.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/04/13 @ 1661.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/04/13 @ 1648.90. Downside Target = 1625.70 – 1611.90.
- Second consecutive inside compression day generated on Tuesday.
- February Gold rebounded from Monday’s bearish settlement to close just off the session’s high after narrowly missing out on confirming a ST bottom.
- Gold has recently digested the losses it incurred at the end of last week and should continue to find some support near $1,650 as it pushes higher to $1,676.20.
- Projected Daily Range: 21.10
- Projected Weekly Range: 52.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/12 @ 1.3129. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3187. Downside Targets = 1.3093 – 1.3036.
- The March Euro FX erased most of its gains for the week so far on Tuesday as it ran into some ST resistance at 1.3150 to close in the lower 40% of the day’s trading range.
- Tuesday’s price action suggests that the market will rally back near 1.3124 and then drop to test the weekly lows.
- Projected Daily Range: .0094
- Projected Weekly Range: .0193
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 111.79. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- February Brent Crude made new four-session highs on Tuesday as it led the energy sector higher on the day yet was unable to close above the $112 mark.
- Brent has lagged WTI in recent weeks and unless it can close above $112.20 on a weekly level it may continue to trade back and forth around the $110 mark until the debt ceiling issue draws near.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.33
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 01/08/13 @ 93.36. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 90.10 – 90.68.
- February WTI Crude Oil actually settled lower on the session despite trading to within 7 cents of new multi-month highs as it closed below the day’s mid-range.
- Look for WTI to fall modestly lower on Wednesday as the EIA storage numbers are released in the midst of a technical close cluster pattern near the Q4 ’12 highs.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.74
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
- February Natural Gas dropped lower on Tuesday as it settled below Monday’s low yet just above the daily SBB.
- After finding support near last week’s intraday consolidation zone from $2.16 – $2.20, look for a move back to the upside through the end of the week and a challenge of $3.40.
- Projected Daily Range: .100
- Projected Weekly Range: .274
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
