Corn, soybeans, wheat prepare for big Friday report

Grains and oilseeds report

Soybeans Soybeans

Corn: There will be more estimates for Friday’s report as the week moves on, but for now there just aren’t the expectations for a life-saving report on Friday. At the moment, the fundamental news we saw Monday suggested a modest bounce and that is exactly what happened.

Bulls can still become more active this week if they feel the carryout will drop on Friday. Bears will look for carryout to stay the same or be higher. Bears know that acreage and yield for 2012 corn can call, but demand can offset those losses if not even more.

Friday’s report has five limit moves in the last six years. One thing that shows is that this report typically catches the market by surprise and estimates are typically wrong. This is one report that might be better to react to rather than to place large trades ahead of it…Ryan Ettner

Soybeans: Beans are undervalued at these levels but we will most likely see a drastic change in price. The range over the last six years has been 20 cents to 70 cents (limit), with three years closing higher and three years closing lower.

We are looking for a slight increase for ending stocks but should already be priced in. The charts will look better if we can see a move back above 14.00 for the March contract. The November low of 13.56 will be important to stay above or beans will be open to more downside liquidation. This week will be positioning ahead of the report with most other news rather quiet…Steve Georgy

Wheat: The forecast for the spring continues to look dry, but with demand behind USDA's initial expectations and a carryout that is not overly tight by historic standards, we continue to struggle to gain traction to the upside.

Wheat over the last 10 years has seen six higher years and four down years. The four down years averaged a 36-cent loss and the six up years averaged a 13-cent gain.

On Friday’s report, we are going to see the USDA’s first thought on winter wheat acreage. We are expecting to see an increase of 2.1 million acres from last year to this year.  This will be the most important piece of wheat info on Friday's report…Cordon Sroka

About the Author

Ryan Ettner is a registered commodities broker and grains analyst at Allendale, Inc. Steve Georgy is a Sr. Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Jim McCormick is Senior Broker/Manager at Allendale, Inc. Allendale is registered with the CFTC and NFA and is a member of the NIBA.

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