Coffee prepares for index fund adjustments, possible Roya outbreak

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed lower as favorable weather was forecast for Florida. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. More rain would be beneficial, but current forecasts are on the dry side. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Winter is here, and with Winter comes the threat for a freeze to Oranges and other fruits grown in Florida, but there is no real cold weather in the forecast. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and light showers or dry conditions.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 108.00, 107.00, and 104.00 March, with resistance at 118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher after trading both side of unchanged. It looked like speculators were trying to buy in anticipation of the index fund adjustments that could add more Sugar contracts to their portfolios. It was a two sided day, with other speculators doing some selling. Futures are in a trading range. There was no demand news to support values, but prices are cheaper these days and buyers can get good deals done. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too, although there are more reports of slow harvest progress in Thailand. Conditions still look good for many production areas. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing pace is called slow right now. Brazil production continues strong.

Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Safras e Mercado said yesterday that it expects Center-South Brazil Sugarcane production to be near 600 million tons, 15% higher than 2012.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1810 March. Support is at 1865, 1830, and 1800 March, and resistance is at 1925, 1945, and 1975 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 505.00, 502.00, and 500.00 March, and resistance is at 516.00, 520.00, and 524.00 March.

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments: Futures closed higher in reversal type trading yesterday. A support area held on the charts and this seemed to create a lot of speculative buying tied to short covering. Good arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong, and the trend for strong arrivals from there should continue. Ghana producers are reported to be selling as well. Malaysia has been seeing scattered showers and seems to be in better condition, and Indonesia is seeing beneficial rains. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the Wold Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. The market needs some demand news or some other news to shake it out of the sideways to lower trade. This news could come son as the main West Africa harvest should be about over and there is a lot of talk that production next year will be less.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 3.820 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2205, 2195, and 2155 March, with resistance at 2270, 2290, and 2325 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1420, 1410, and 1405 March, with resistance at 1445, 1455, and 1490 March.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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