KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/04/13 @ 111.26. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- February Brent Crude dropped lower on Friday to end the week just above Monday’s close and also slightly above the daily mid-range.
- Brent was able to make an early move higher into the New Year but could not sustain the bullish momentum to trade through the Q4 highs and may set back to the $110 level it has traded around for five months.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.48
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.33
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/04/13 @ 91.55. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 90.10 – 90.68.
- February WTI crude oil reversed course from its early losses to close back just a few ticks off the session’s high.
- WTI may see a little drop lower in early week trading but find strong support near $92 and then return to make a move back through the $95 resistance level onward to the IT objective of $97.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.61
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.74
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
- February Natural Gas received a nice bounce on Friday following the largest storage draw of the season as it tried to recapture some of the lost ground from Wednesday’s HFT debacle.
- With this past week bringing cold weather throughout the producing regions as well as the northern parts of the country, look for another large withdrawal and for natural gas to work its way higher back near the $3.45 mark.
- Projected Daily Range: .129
- Projected Weekly Range: .274
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/04/13 @ 1661.10. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/04/13 @ 1648.90. Downside Target = 1625.70 – 1611.90.
- February gold continued its fall lower on Friday as it broke through the Q4 lows and settled and its second lowest point since late August before making an after pit-session short covering rally back near $1,655.
- Look for gold to fall back lower again on Monday and eventually drop down near the $1,600 level before finding any support.
- Projected Daily Range: 23.60
- Projected Weekly Range: 52.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/02/12 @ 1.3174. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3187. Downside Targets = 1.3093 – 1.3036.
- New lows made on current move Friday @ 1.3005.
- The March Euro FX also dropped lower throughout Friday’s session before making a comeback to settle positive on the day after trading just through the downside targets.
- As mentioned in last week’s reports, the euro was able to find solid support at 1.30 and should make a solid move back to the upside in the coming weeks.
- Projected Daily Range: .0092
- Projected Weekly Range: .0193
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/31/12 @ 1417.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
- New highs made on current move Friday @ 1463.00.
- The March S&Ps made new contract highs on Friday but was unable to hold onto most of the day’s gains as it settled back just above the daily mid-range.
- The S&Ps are nearing a point where they are extremely overbought as much as they were in mid-September and could see a drop lower in the coming weeks as Congress is sure to make a debacle out of the debt ceiling debate.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 59.25
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
