Is recent stock market strength a victory with costs too great?

Weekly Review: MAAD, CPFL indicator analysis

Conclusion

Since the spring of 2011 crosscurrents in the stock market have continued to persist. While it’s true all of the major indexes are net positive in the 20 months since those 2011 highs when all of our key indicators peaked, NONE has registered anywhere near the gains that were realized in the first stages of the bull trend that originated in March 2009. While the S&P 500 rallied a whopping 106% from the March 2009 lows until early May 2011, strength from May 2011 to date has garnered just under 7% for the S&P. Put another way, for the S&P to equal that earlier gain with a new standing start on May 2, 2011 at 1370.58, it would need to rally another 1350 points to 2816 within the next four months. Is that possible? Yes, but only in lemming country with no sellers in sight. In our world, we continue to think the risk of staying substantially long this market in an environment of so many negative divergences has become, increasingly, more risky.

MAAD data for past 30 days*

CPFL data for past 30 days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

11-21-12

15

4

11-21-12

9525

8770

11-22-12

Holiday

---

11-22-12

Holiday

---

11-23-12

19

1

11-23-12

29866

8250

11-26-12

10

9

11-26-12

25831

10117

11-27-12

6

14

11-27-12

9673

23131

11-28-12

17

1

11-28-12

27896

19815

11-29-12

18

2

11-29-12

86001

24299

11-30-12

9

10

11-30-12

22585

14307

12-3-12

5

14

12-3-12

17418

14769

12-4-12

13

7

12-4-12

7473

11819

12-5-12

15

5

12-5-12

10641

35677

12-6-12

13

7

12-6-12

11237

9199

12-7-12

14

5

12-7-12

21423

8692

12-10-12

12

8

12-10-12

5801

8010

12-11-12

16

4

12-11-12

58541

16935

12-12-12

14

6

12-12-12

14037

29016

12-13-12

5

15

12-13-12

16200

21122

12-14-12

11

8

12-14-12

755

2204

12-17-12

16

4

12-17-12

3965

2127

12-18-12

16

4

12-18-12

54268

15407

12-19-12

8

10

12-19-12

23234

17820

12-20-12

15

4

12-20-12

60116

9429

12-21-12

1

19

12-21-12

113448

24330

12-24-12

7

11

12-24-12

12273

4633

12-26-12

10

10

12-26-12

13183

9095

12-27-12

4

16

12-27-12

13740

15048

12-28-12

3

17

12-28-12

9876

20514

12-31-12

19

0

12-31-12

66137

7704

1-2-13

18

2

1-2-13

41038

18210

1-3-13

8

12

1-3-13

27988

14827

1-4-13

16

4

1-4-13

15918

9326

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

6-15-12

17

3

6-15-12

224947

79354

6-22-12

11

9

6-22-12

41604

118995

6-29-12

11

9

6-29-12

215980

45870

7-6-12

9

11

7-6-12

22987

66734

7-13-12

7

13

7-13-12

115325

165598

7-20-12

11

9

7-20-12

155286

106164

7-27-12

15

5

7-27-12

469554

55021

8-3-12

14

4

8-3-12

189964

56326

8-10-12

18

2

8-10-12

127913

51441

8-17-12

11

9

8-17-12

168381

34193

8-24-12

5

14

8-24-12

61567

91299

8-31-12

4

16

8-31-12

27713

56889

9-7-12

17

2

9-7-12

192729

30202

9-14-12

17

3

9-14-12

295058

62406

9-21-12

4

16

9-21-21

140898

41443

9-28-12

6

14

9-28-28

68066

104869

10-5-12

15

5

10-5-12

82790

46425

10-12-12

4

16

10-12-12

23119

203431

10-19-12

10

10

10-19-12

40632

219576

10-26-12

6

14

10-26-12

43539

151159

11-2-12

15

5

11-2-12

31681

39436

11-9-12

0

20

11-9-12

51223

261506

11-16-12

3

17

11-16-12

104817

333252

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

11-30-12

12

8

11-30-12

152468

59828

12-7-12

15

5

12-7-12

53407

49271

12-14-12

10

10

12-14-12

51445

98445

12-21-12

14

6

12-21-12

216650

126720

12-28-12

5

15

12-28-12

19431

48587

1-4-13

19

1

1-4-13

142605

25100

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

 

<< Page 5 of 5
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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