KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/31/12 @ 1677.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1675.80. Upside Target = 1692.40 – 1716.80
- February Gold dropped sharply lower in afternoon trading on Thursday on the heels of the FOMC report to last trade just off the session’s low.
- Look for gold to continue the decline lower on Friday, possibly generating an outside week to the downside and negating all the positive momentum established over the past week as it seeks to retest the December lows at $1,636.
- Projected Daily Range: 26.30
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/02/12 @ 1.3174. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3187. Downside Targets = 1.3093 – 1.3036.
- Bearish ERVB generated on Thursday making new lows on the current move @ 1.3055.
- The March Euro FX fell sharply lower on Thursday as the USD had one of its best days against the FX currencies with the hinting of the end of the various Fed QE programs.
- While the market may continue to see a ST setback lower, traders should look to buy aggressively if the market becomes oversold into previous levels of support near 1.29 and expect the 2012 highs to be broken during Q1 2013.
- Projected Daily Range: .0111
- Projected Weekly Range: .0198
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/31/12 @ 1417.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1460.50.
- The March S&Ps once again traded outside the daily RBB on Thursday but faltered late in the session after its best New Year’s gain ever.
- This market has been buoyed the last three sessions on the backside of a fiscal cliff deal but investors need to remember that the most pressing issue our country faces, the staggering debt, was not tended to and should be ready for a very volatile next couple of months full of partisan bickering.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.53. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- Inside VRCB generated on Thursday.
- February Brent Crude gave back some of its gains from Wednesday in a tight trading session as the FOMC minutes revealed some members are in favor of ending QE by the end of 2013.
- Look for Brent to finish the week near Monday’s close after four weeks of gains and a possible ST correction to unfold if the market closes below 111.27.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.46
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.53
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.21. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 90.10 – 90.68.
- Inside compression day generated on Thursday.
- February WTI Crude Oil dropped back to trade within the daily RBB on Thursday following an explosive move higher in the first few days of the week to close just above the daily mid-range.
- Look for WTI to move lower in early trading Friday before finding some support near $91.75 and eventually settling above $92.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.88
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
- Inside compression day generated on Thursday.
- February Natural Gas continued to drop lower on Thursday albeit in a very tight trading range as it once again moved back to make new highs in the second half day of trading to close just below $3.20.
- With initial weather forecast from early in the week moderating back to show colder weather and what should be the largest supply draw of the season, look for natural gas to move sharply higher in Friday trading back near the $3.35 mark.
- Projected Daily Range: .131
- Projected Weekly Range: .274
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
