Gold gaining downside momentum, targets December lows

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 01/04/2013

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.53. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
  • Inside VRCB generated on Thursday.
  • February Brent Crude gave back some of its gains from Wednesday in a tight trading session as the FOMC minutes revealed some members are in favor of ending QE by the end of 2013.
  • Look for Brent to finish the week near Monday’s close after four weeks of gains and a possible ST correction to unfold if the market closes below 111.27.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.46
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.53
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.54

WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.21. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 90.10 – 90.68.
  • Inside compression day generated on Thursday.
  • February WTI Crude Oil dropped back to trade within the daily RBB on Thursday following an explosive move higher in the first few days of the week to close just above the daily mid-range.
  • Look for WTI to move lower in early trading Friday before finding some support near $91.75 and eventually settling above $92.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.88
  • Projected Monthly Range: 7.18

Natural Gas (February ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
  • Inside compression day generated on Thursday.
  • February Natural Gas continued to drop lower on Thursday albeit in a very tight trading range as it once again moved back to make new highs in the second half day of trading to close just below $3.20.
  • With initial weather forecast from early in the week moderating back to show colder weather and what should be the largest supply draw of the season, look for natural gas to move sharply higher in Friday trading back near the $3.35 mark.
  • Projected Daily Range: .131
  • Projected Weekly Range: .274
  • Projected Monthly Range: .492
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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