Oil sees path higher to resistance at $97

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 01/03/2013

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/31/12 @ 1677.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1675.80. Upside Target = 1692.40 – 1716.80
  • New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1695.40.
    • February Gold continued to move higher on Wednesday on the heels of the US fiscal cliff “deal” that brought about a risk on sentiment to traders as the market threatened $1,700 for the first time in two weeks.
    • Although gold did settle off the session highs toward the end of the day, the hard asset should continue to see a month long gain in prices that will eventually push the market between $1,755 - $1,788.
  • Projected Daily Range: 20.80
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.60
  • Projected Monthly Range: 90.30

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/02/12 @ 1.3174. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3187. Downside Targets = 1.3093 – 1.3036.
  • Bearish OVB generated on Wednesday.
    • The March Euro FX dropped significantly lower on Wednesday as it last traded below the 1.32 mark and is setting up for a possible IT confirmation of a top with a weekly settle below 1.3145.
    • The euro enjoyed an unchallenged move higher for the last 6 weeks of 2012 and after trading to within just 30 ticks of the IT Upside Target, a slight move lower in the next couple of weeks could reinvigorate bulls and lead to a rally that should subsequently knock out the 2012 highs and trade above 1.35.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0094
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0198
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0381

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/31/12 @ 1417.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
  • New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1458.00.
    • The March S&Ps gapped higher on Wednesday to begin the new year with a bang, settling at its third highest price in five years on the backside of the tax solution to the fiscal cliff being passed through Congress late on New Year’s Day.
    • The S&’s should have a very strong start to 2013 but will almost undoubtedly see a modest correction on the level of 5-7% come mid-February when serious talks over the US debt ceiling have to be dealt with.
  • Projected Daily Range: 25.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 42.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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