KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.53. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 112.90.
- February Brent Crude gapped higher on Wednesday to trade to its highest levels since mid-October and close outside of the daily RBB for the first time since mid-November.
- As long as Brent closes above $112.20 this week, this market should have a 78% chance of breaking through the September highs of 117.95 and moving onward towards my longstanding IT objective of 121.21.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.71
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.53
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.54
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.21. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 90.10 – 90.68.
- New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 93.87.
- February WTI Crude Oil exploded higher on Wednesday following the “deal” to avert the fiscal cliff tax increases as it spent most of the entire day’s session above the daily RBB before stopping just shy of breaking through $94.
- While WTI settled considerable back off the day’s high toward the end of electronic trading, much of that can be attributed to profit taking after an $8 gain over the past three weeks and the market should continue higher before meeting any true resistance at $97.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.82
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.88
- Projected Monthly Range: 7.18
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 01/02/13 @ 3.315. Downside Targets = 3.102 – 3.055.
- Bearish ERVB generated on Wednesday.
- February Natural Gas was able to come back marginally off the pit session lows as it headed into the close on Wednesday yet still closed below the daily SBB as it shed nearly 12 cents.
- Natural Gas should build on Wednesday’s late momentum as it nears Friday’s storage report that is expected to deliver its largest draw in supplies of the season.
- Projected Daily Range: .115
- Projected Weekly Range: .274
- Projected Monthly Range: .492
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/31/12 @ 1677.90. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1675.80. Upside Target = 1692.40 – 1716.80
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1695.40.
- February Gold continued to move higher on Wednesday on the heels of the US fiscal cliff “deal” that brought about a risk on sentiment to traders as the market threatened $1,700 for the first time in two weeks.
- Although gold did settle off the session highs toward the end of the day, the hard asset should continue to see a month long gain in prices that will eventually push the market between $1,755 - $1,788.
- Projected Daily Range: 20.80
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.60
- Projected Monthly Range: 90.30
CURRENCIES
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 01/02/12 @ 1.3174. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3187. Downside Targets = 1.3093 – 1.3036.
- Bearish OVB generated on Wednesday.
- The March Euro FX dropped significantly lower on Wednesday as it last traded below the 1.32 mark and is setting up for a possible IT confirmation of a top with a weekly settle below 1.3145.
- The euro enjoyed an unchallenged move higher for the last 6 weeks of 2012 and after trading to within just 30 ticks of the IT Upside Target, a slight move lower in the next couple of weeks could reinvigorate bulls and lead to a rally that should subsequently knock out the 2012 highs and trade above 1.35.
- Projected Daily Range: .0094
- Projected Weekly Range: .0198
- Projected Monthly Range: .0381
INDEXES
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/31/12 @ 1417.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/31/12 @ 1420.00. Upside Targets = 1452.00 – 1471.50.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1458.00.
- The March S&Ps gapped higher on Wednesday to begin the new year with a bang, settling at its third highest price in five years on the backside of the tax solution to the fiscal cliff being passed through Congress late on New Year’s Day.
- The S&’s should have a very strong start to 2013 but will almost undoubtedly see a modest correction on the level of 5-7% come mid-February when serious talks over the US debt ceiling have to be dealt with.
- Projected Daily Range: 25.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 42.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 76.00
