Stock market's rally since November not feeling any warmer

Weekly Review: MAAD, CPFL indicator analysis

Conclusion

The reversal of the short-term trend to negative last week was not unexpected, but in the face of below normal market activity, we always wonder how trustworthy such a decline really is. When the majority of market players return from holiday over the next several days, the authenticity of that decline will be proven.

Holiday or not, the truth is that for the past 3 ½ months the major indexes have been unable to make a substantial dent in major resistance. The Value Line index perked to a marginally new all-time high December 20, but even so the S&P 500 that continues to hold well below its all-time high (1576.09) made in October 2007 has still gained more since May 2011 than the Value Line index. Putting those new VAY highs into perspective, the failure of the S&P, Dow 30, and NASDAQ Composite to follow the leader while none of our key indicators have confirmed any index strength since May 2011 leaves us with less than a sanguine feeling on the eve of a new trading year.

MAAD Daily data for past 30 days*

CPFL data for past 30 Days

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

11-15-12

11

9

11-15-12

46018

81180

11-16-12

15

5

11-16-12

40162

46466

11-19-12

19

1

11-19-12

38924

21109

11-20-12

13

7

11-20-12

21081

21565

11-21-12

15

4

11-21-12

9525

8770

11-22-12

Holiday

---

11-22-12

Holiday

---

11-23-12

19

1

11-23-12

29866

8250

11-26-12

10

9

11-26-12

25831

10117

11-27-12

6

14

11-27-12

9673

23131

11-28-12

17

1

11-28-12

27896

19815

11-29-12

18

2

11-29-12

86001

24299

11-30-12

9

10

11-30-12

22585

14307

12-3-12

5

14

12-3-12

17418

14769

12-4-12

13

7

12-4-12

7473

11819

12-5-12

15

5

12-5-12

10641

35677

12-6-12

13

7

12-6-12

11237

9199

12-7-12

14

5

12-7-12

21423

8692

12-10-12

12

8

12-10-12

5801

8010

12-11-12

16

4

12-11-12

58541

16935

12-12-12

14

6

12-12-12

14037

29016

12-13-12

5

15

12-13-12

16200

21122

12-14-12

11

8

12-14-12

755

2204

12-17-12

16

4

12-17-12

3965

2127

12-18-12

16

4

12-18-12

54268

15407

12-19-12

8

10

12-19-12

23234

17820

12-20-12

15

4

12-20-12

60116

9429

12-21-12

1

19

12-21-12

113448

24330

12-24-12

7

11

12-24-12

12273

4633

12-26-12

10

10

12-26-12

13183

9095

12-27-12

4

16

12-27-12

13740

15048

12-28-12

3

17

12-28-12

9876

20514

*Note: Unchanged issues are not counted.

MAAD Weekly data for past 30 Weeks**

CPFL data for past 30 Weeks

Date

NYSE Adv

NYSE Dec

Date

OEX Call $Volume

OEX Put $Volume

6-8-12

19

1

6-8-12

206062

57765

6-15-12

17

3

6-15-12

224947

79354

6-22-12

11

9

6-22-12

41604

118995

6-29-12

11

9

6-29-12

215980

45870

7-6-12

9

11

7-6-12

22987

66734

7-13-12

7

13

7-13-12

115325

165598

7-20-12

11

9

7-20-12

155286

106164

7-27-12

15

5

7-27-12

469554

55021

8-3-12

14

4

8-3-12

189964

56326

8-10-12

18

2

8-10-12

127913

51441

8-17-12

11

9

8-17-12

168381

34193

8-24-12

5

14

8-24-12

61567

91299

8-31-12

4

16

8-31-12

27713

56889

9-7-12

17

2

9-7-12

192729

30202

9-14-12

17

3

9-14-12

295058

62406

9-21-12

4

16

9-21-21

140898

41443

9-28-12

6

14

9-28-28

68066

104869

10-5-12

15

5

10-5-12

82790

46425

10-12-12

4

16

10-12-12

23119

203431

10-19-12

10

10

10-19-12

40632

219576

10-26-12

6

14

10-26-12

43539

151159

11-2-12

15

5

11-2-12

31681

39436

11-9-12

0

20

11-9-12

51223

261506

11-16-12

3

17

11-16-12

104817

333252

11-23-12

18

2

11-23-12

136708

34280

11-30-12

12

8

11-30-12

152468

59828

12-7-12

15

5

12-7-12

53407

49271

12-14-12

10

10

12-14-12

51445

98445

12-21-12

14

6

12-21-12

216650

126720

12-28-12

5

15

12-28-12

19431

48587

**Note: All data is for calendar week ending on Friday even though ending date may be a holiday. Unchanged issues in MAAD calculations are not counted.

<< Page 5 of 5
About the Author
Robert McCurtain

Robert McCurtain is a technical analyst/market timer, private investor and financial markets consultant based in New York City. He can be reached at traderbob@nyc.rr.com.

If you would like to read more about how the CPFL is constructed, read a Futures article on the concept. This link will take you to the MAAD article. A two-part series about system development with the MAAD also is available. 

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