Natural gas finds support as traders await inventories

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 12/27/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/17/12 @ 1690.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
  • February Gold generated a bullish Outside Day on Wednesday yet failed to confirm a ST bottom as it settled just marginally higher after an early morning rally wasn’t sustainable.
  • Gold has traded out to the side over the last few sessions and after dropping more than $160 from the Q4 highs, it may be finding firm footing as investors look to the precious metal as a safe-haven with a resolution to the fiscal cliff looking extremely dim.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.70
  • Projected Weekly Range: 47.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 94.70

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 1.3262. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3187. Downside Targets = 1.3093 – 1.3036.
  • The March Euro FX moved slightly higher on Wednesday before settling back below the daily mid-range in a low volume trading day after partially confirming an ST bottom in the market.
  • For several weeks now, my analysis has remained consistent in projecting the euro to break through the 2012 highs and target 1.35 early in Q1 2013.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0081
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0239
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0456

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/21/12 @ 1427.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1426.00. Downside Targets = 1390.50 – 1378.00
  • Bearish VRCB – OVB combination generated on Wednesday.
  • The March S&Ps continued their decline lower on Wednesday as shorts piled in toward the second half of trading as fiscal cliff uncertainty keeps a lid on the market as the end of the year draws closer with no deal in sight.
  • The S&Ps could drop significantly lower early in the New Year if lawmakers let the country go over the fiscal cliff or strike an agreement that does not address necessary deficit reduction measures and trade as low as 1360.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 36.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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