KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.53. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- Bullish Extended Range day generated on Wednesday.
- February Brent Crude moved to new highs for the month on Wednesday and to its highest level since mid-October despite a volatile trading session in other risk markets due to increasing uncertainty over the fiscal cliff.
- Look for the price action to continue to drive this market higher into Thursday as it tracks down the extended upside objective of $113.61.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.74
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.21. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 90.10 – 90.68.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 91.30.
- February WTI crude oil led the crude sector higher throughout most of the trading session on Wednesday as it also moved to new highs for the month and closed above $90 for the first time since mid-October.
- Now that WTI has traded through the daily RBB, look for a slight move higher on Thursday and some sideways trading action heading into the weekend.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.82
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.73
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/26/2012 @ 3.362. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/2012 @ 3.418. Upside Targets = 3.549 – 3.631.
- February Natural Gas once again found solid support above $3.32 on Wednesday in a very light volume trading session as heavy snow throughout the Midwest and Northeast have traders preparing for a large supply draw in the weeks to come.
- While Friday’s storage number may not be overwhelmingly bullish, natural gas is currently trading at a significant discount and has found support at the current levels that warrants a move back to the upside to fill the close gap left in the market at $3.57.
- Projected Daily Range: .107
- Projected Weekly Range: .282
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/17/12 @ 1690.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- February Gold generated a bullish Outside Day on Wednesday yet failed to confirm a ST bottom as it settled just marginally higher after an early morning rally wasn’t sustainable.
- Gold has traded out to the side over the last few sessions and after dropping more than $160 from the Q4 highs, it may be finding firm footing as investors look to the precious metal as a safe-haven with a resolution to the fiscal cliff looking extremely dim.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/26/12 @ 1.3262. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3187. Downside Targets = 1.3093 – 1.3036.
- The March Euro FX moved slightly higher on Wednesday before settling back below the daily mid-range in a low volume trading day after partially confirming an ST bottom in the market.
- For several weeks now, my analysis has remained consistent in projecting the euro to break through the 2012 highs and target 1.35 early in Q1 2013.
- Projected Daily Range: .0081
- Projected Weekly Range: .0239
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/21/12 @ 1427.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1426.00. Downside Targets = 1390.50 – 1378.00
- Bearish VRCB – OVB combination generated on Wednesday.
- The March S&Ps continued their decline lower on Wednesday as shorts piled in toward the second half of trading as fiscal cliff uncertainty keeps a lid on the market as the end of the year draws closer with no deal in sight.
- The S&Ps could drop significantly lower early in the New Year if lawmakers let the country go over the fiscal cliff or strike an agreement that does not address necessary deficit reduction measures and trade as low as 1360.
- Projected Daily Range: 18.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 36.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
