KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.53. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- Close < Low of High Day generated on Friday.
- February Brent Crude dropped back near the weekly mid-range on Friday as a fiscal cliff agreement seemed to sputter along with the cancelation of a vote on “Plan B”.
- Look for Brent to move slightly lower in a thin trading session on Monday down to $108 before finishing the session back unchanged.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.48
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.30
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.21. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 90.10 – 90.68.
- Close < Low of High Day generated on Friday.
- February WTI Crude Oil followed through on last Thursday evening report to the letter, dropping over half of its gains of the week and trading just four ticks through the $88 mark.
- Like Brent, WTI should trade marginally lower to begin the week in light volume and settle just above the $88 mark where ST support is pegged.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.82
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.73
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (February ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/18/2012 @ 3.396. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/2012 @ 3.418. Upside Targets = 3.549 – 3.631.
- New highs made on the current move Friday @ 3.532.
- February Natural Gas was unable to build on Thursday’s bullish storage number during Friday’ session as all attempts to break-out above $3.50 stalled and the market eventually settled back in the lower 40% of the day’s trading range.
- While natural gas got to within just 4 cents of filling the weekly close gap left in this market from two weeks ago, bears still have firm control of this market and with a weaker than normal storage number expected during the holiday week, natural gas could drop all the way down to test the August lows at $3.222 by years end.
- Projected Daily Range: .128
- Projected Weekly Range: .282
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/17/12 @ 1690.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- February Gold was able to see a bit of short-covering going into the weekend close as it found lots of buyers again under $1,640 and closed the day just of the session high.
- Look for an early week setback to the $1,650 psychological support point and then a possible bounce higher into the last few trading days of the year near the $1,690 level.
- Projected Daily Range: 24.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 47.80
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3211. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3187. Downside Targets = 1.3093 – 1.3036.
- The March Euro FX continued to fall lower heading into the weekend on Friday due to a strong USD and a risk off attitude regarding most markets after confirming a ST top.
- The current drop-off in value of the euro should only last a week at the most before finding solid footing above 1.30 and taking aim at knocking out the 2012 highs early in the new year.
- Projected Daily Range: .0091
- Projected Weekly Range: .0239
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/21/12 @ 1427.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1426.00. Downside Targets = 1390.50 – 1378.00
- The March S&Ps saw a dramatic sell-off in the early overnight session on Friday after a canceled vote on “Plan B” in high frequency trading before snapping back to close in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
- The S&Ps still confirmed a ST top in the market and without some sort of agreement that will address the nations spending and deficit situation; this market could drop to the secondary downside target of 1378 by years end.
- Projected Daily Range: 19.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 36.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
