Natural gas could test August lows by yearend

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Monday 12/24/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/17/12 @ 1690.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
  • February Gold was able to see a bit of short-covering going into the weekend close as it found lots of buyers again under $1,640 and closed the day just of the session high.
  • Look for an early week setback to the $1,650 psychological support point and then a possible bounce higher into the last few trading days of the year near the $1,690 level.
  • Projected Daily Range: 24.90
  • Projected Weekly Range: 47.80
  • Projected Monthly Range: 94.70

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3211. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1.3187. Downside Targets = 1.3093 – 1.3036.
  • The March Euro FX continued to fall lower heading into the weekend on Friday due to a strong USD and a risk off attitude regarding most markets after confirming a ST top.
  • The current drop-off in value of the euro should only last a week at the most before finding solid footing above 1.30 and taking aim at knocking out the 2012 highs early in the new year.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0091
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0239
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0456

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/21/12 @ 1427.00. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/21/12 @ 1426.00. Downside Targets = 1390.50 – 1378.00
  • The March S&Ps saw a dramatic sell-off in the early overnight session on Friday after a canceled vote on “Plan B” in high frequency trading before snapping back to close in the upper 75% of the day’s trading range.
  • The S&Ps still confirmed a ST top in the market and without some sort of agreement that will address the nations spending and deficit situation; this market could drop to the secondary downside target of 1378 by years end.
  • Projected Daily Range: 19.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 36.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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