Bulls have thin upside edge in stock market

Weekly Review: MAAD, CPFL indicator analysis

Daily S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

emini, volume, cumulative

Weekly S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

weekly, emini, volume

And last there is market volume. Last week we presented a Monthly chart of the S&P 500 relative to its Cumulative Volume. Not only has CV not kept pace with market action since peaking in late 2008 and early 2009, but upward movement in the indicator since the spring of 2011, nearly two years, has been anemic. In other words, while the S&P rallied nearly 112% from March 2009 through May 2011, from May 2011 to date on noticeably less volume, the S&P has only gained a little more than 4%.

Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly








S&P 500 Index

SELL 1414.70


SELL 1421.86

SELL 1424.46

SELL 1424.70

BUY 1430.56

SELL 1293.26

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL 13127.30


SELL 13177.99

SELL 13189.96

SELL 13181.14

BUY 13273.10

SELL 12313.37

NASDAQ Composite

SELL 2979.45


SELL 2998.07

SELL 3006.18

SELL 3005.89

BUY 3029.75

SELL 2772.87

Value Line Index

SELL 3087.04


SELL 3111.55

SELL 3123.26

SELL 3129.64

SELL 2965.81

SELL 2758.13

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

In sum, the teeter is currently tottering marginally positive -- there are somewhat more buyers than sellers. Despite the fact the Value Line index rallied to a new all-time high last week and the fact some of our key indicators have been a bit more perky of late, we continue to believe ongoing major resistance in those same indicators will ultimately demand a toll on the long-term trend from the major indexes.

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