Natural gas holds at resistance before storage report

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 12/20/2012

KEY TERMS

OVB      Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB   Volatility Reduced Compression Bar

ENERGIES

Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.53. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
  • New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 110.48.
    • February Brent Crude continues to follow through on the projections listed in the nightly reports as it moved to its highest settlement since Nov. 23.
    • Brent is currently on pace to make new highs for the month by week’s end and should such an occurrence happen it will set up a target of $114.83 by the end of the year.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.67
  • Projected Weekly Range: 4.29
  • Projected Monthly Range: 9.03

WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.21. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/12 @ 88.40. Upside Targets = 90.10 – 90.68.
  • New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 90.33.
    • February WTI Crude Oil traded less than $0.50 through the upside price target listed in Monday evenings report on Wednesday before impacting the daily RBB and settling just below $90.
    • WTI has traded in excess of 90% of the projected weekly trading range suggesting the market may experience slight profit taking on Thursday before being able to resume any further movements higher.
  • Projected Daily Range: 1.44
  • Projected Weekly Range: 3.58
  • Projected Monthly Range: 8.74

Natural Gas (February ‘13):

  • Short Term trend is bearish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/18/2012 @ 3.396. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/18/2012 @ 3.418. Upside Targets = 3.549 – 3.631.
  • Bearish CLOSE REVERSAL generated on Wednesday.
    • February Natural Gas dropped sharply lower in overnight/early morning trading on Wednesday as it challenged the weekly lows near $3.32 before moving back to make new pit session highs in the second half day of trading.
    • If natural gas is able to hold the weekly lows of $3.317 on Thursday before the storage report, any sizable draw in inventories should push this market higher heading into the weekend to a maximum weekly upside objective of $3.606.
  • Projected Daily Range: .116
  • Projected Weekly Range: .287
  • Projected Monthly Range: .557

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