Natural gas holds at resistance before storage report

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Thursday 12/20/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/17/12 @ 1690.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
  • Inside compression day generated on Wednesday.
    • February Gold finished Wednesday’s trading session just slightly lower following Tuesday’s dramatic selloff as prices hovered within a $13 trading range while closing on the daily SBB.
    • Currently the gold trade revolves solely around fiscal cliff talks and with optimism waning toward the end of Wednesday about getting a deal done before Christmas, look for gold to make new lows for the week on Thursday and challenge the lows set back on Aug. 31.
  • Projected Daily Range: 22.10
  • Projected Weekly Range: 40.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 94.70

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.2975. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.3004. Upside Targets = 1.3183 – 1.3245.
  • New highs made on the current move Wednesday @ 1.3321.
    • The March Euro FX traded to its highest level in over eight months on Wednesday before backing off heading into the end of the session because of a possible break-down in negotiations on fiscal cliff talks.
    • The euro has enjoyed a substantial rise over the last five weeks and while there should be an impending setback as the market reaches peak stochastic and rate of change levels, this market should be bought aggressively on any such setback.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0086
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0230
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0456

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/07/12 @ 1415.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00 – *1465.00
  • New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1446.00.
    • The March S&Ps gave back its early session gains on Wednesday heading into the close on rumors of a possible break-down in fiscal cliff negotiations as they dropped almost 10 points in the last few hours of trading.
    • The major stock indexes have enjoyed nice gains over the last 5-6 weeks on optimism of a fiscal cliff agreement being reached and with passage of “Plan B” through the House on Thursday the market should pop higher to extend its weekly gains heading into the best seasonal trading time for the market.
  • Projected Daily Range: 18.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 30.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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