Gold collapse does technical damage, could snap back

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Wednesday 12/19/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/17/12 @ 1690.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
  • Bearish EROVB generated on Tuesday making new lows on the current move @ 1662.00.
  • February Gold dropped sharply lower on Tuesday after initially making new highs for the week for its largest single day decline since early November and closed below the daily SBB.
  • While the gold collapse did some serious technical damage on Tuesday, this price action has the making of a possible flush out move that could snap the market back higher in the coming days.
  • Projected Daily Range: 21.30
  • Projected Weekly Range: 40.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 94.70

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.2975. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.3004. Upside Targets = 1.3183 – 1.3245.
  • New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 1.3252.
  • The March Euro FX continued to advance higher on Tuesday, logging its seventh consecutive day of higher lows and closing just inside the daily RBB.
  • After trading to within just six ticks of my projected Q4 downside objective (1.2674), this market continues to follow through on quarterly analysis that projects the Euro will continue higher over the coming months and break through the 2012 highs and target 1.3594.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0085
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0230
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0456

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/07/12 @ 1415.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00 – *1465.00
  • New highs made on current move Tuesday @ 1443.50.
  • The March S&Ps continued to trade sharply higher on Tuesday for their best two-day gain in more than a month and broke through the IT resistance trend channel to close above the daily RBB.
  • The projection that this market will trade up to 1452 this week still remains steady and with politicians seemingly inching closer to a fiscal cliff deal, this market should extend its gains to the revised upside target of 1465.00.
  • Projected Daily Range: 17.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 30.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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