Natural gas comes off lows, could see short-covering rally

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Tuesday 12/18/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/17/12 @ 1690.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
  • Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1690.60.
  • February Gold rebounded from a weak overnight session on Monday to last trade just off the day’s high but failed to break through last Friday’s high at $1,701.90.
  • Recent price action in the gold market has indicated an inability to break through previous lows with solid support coming into the market below $1,690 and if gold trades back through Friday’s high on Tuesday look for a continuation move higher back near the $1,720 level by week’s end.
  • Projected Daily Range: 14.50
  • Projected Weekly Range: 40.70
  • Projected Monthly Range: 94.70

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.2975. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.3004. Upside Targets = 1.3183 – 1.3245.
  • VRCB generated on Monday making new highs on current move @ 1.3205.
  • The March Euro FX finished Monday’s session virtually unchanged after impacting the daily RBB for the second consecutive day in a tight trading session and closed below the daily mid-range for the first time in 8 sessions.
  • The euro has been on quite the bullish run over the past five weeks as it has made new highs dating back to early May and while various ST indicators are beginning to reach peak levels, and corrections should be bought aggressively expecting the euro to break through the 2012 highs early in the new year.
  • Projected Daily Range: .0082
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0230
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0456

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/07/12 @ 1415.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
  • Close > High of Low Day generated on Monday.
  • The March S&Ps exploded higher on Monday following supportive comments out of Washington that “some” kind of deal would get done before the deadline sent markets to their highest closing level since late October.
  • With the equity markets being given some sort of confidence on some cooperation in fiscal cliff negotiations, the S&Ps could kick into high gear and take a legitimate shot at 1452.00 before Christmas.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.25
  • Projected Weekly Range: 30.50
  • Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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