KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.53. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- VRCB generated on Monday.
- February Brent Crude dropped lower in a very thin trading session Monday but was unable to trade much past Friday’s mid-range before last trading back near the $108 level.
- Brent has been stuck in a monotonous trading range over the last eight sessions but with a move above last week’s high of $108.92 it should have enough momentum to trade above $110 and the initial upside target of $111.39.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.67
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.29
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 88.16. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/06/12 @ 86.6.85. Downside Targets = 86.01 – 85.24.
- February WTI Crude Oil moved slightly higher on Monday before coming up just shy of last week’s high (1 tick) and settled back at the day’s mid-range.
- Based on the recent price action in WTI of consistent higher lows, crude should break through last week’s high early on Tuesday and target the daily RBB ($89.87) by week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.46
- Projected Weekly Range: 3.58
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (January ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
- Possible confirmation of a bottom with a range violation @ 3.396. Possible confirmation of a bottom with a close violation @ 3.396 or higher.
- January Natural Gas was able to log its first daily gain in almost two weeks on Monday after finding strong support under $3.30 and nearly generated a bullish close reversal before coming up just a few ticks shy.
- If natural gas can push through the $3.40 level in early trading on Tuesday, look for the bullish momentum to carry this market up to at least $3.51 on mere short-covering alone and extend even further with a bullish storage number later this week.
- Projected Daily Range: .111
- Projected Weekly Range: .287
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/17/12 @ 1690.60. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation @ 1690.60.
- February Gold rebounded from a weak overnight session on Monday to last trade just off the day’s high but failed to break through last Friday’s high at $1,701.90.
- Recent price action in the gold market has indicated an inability to break through previous lows with solid support coming into the market below $1,690 and if gold trades back through Friday’s high on Tuesday look for a continuation move higher back near the $1,720 level by week’s end.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.50
- Projected Weekly Range: 40.70
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.2975. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.3004. Upside Targets = 1.3183 – 1.3245.
- VRCB generated on Monday making new highs on current move @ 1.3205.
- The March Euro FX finished Monday’s session virtually unchanged after impacting the daily RBB for the second consecutive day in a tight trading session and closed below the daily mid-range for the first time in 8 sessions.
- The euro has been on quite the bullish run over the past five weeks as it has made new highs dating back to early May and while various ST indicators are beginning to reach peak levels, and corrections should be bought aggressively expecting the euro to break through the 2012 highs early in the new year.
- Projected Daily Range: .0082
- Projected Weekly Range: .0230
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/07/12 @ 1415.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
- Close > High of Low Day generated on Monday.
- The March S&Ps exploded higher on Monday following supportive comments out of Washington that “some” kind of deal would get done before the deadline sent markets to their highest closing level since late October.
- With the equity markets being given some sort of confidence on some cooperation in fiscal cliff negotiations, the S&Ps could kick into high gear and take a legitimate shot at 1452.00 before Christmas.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 30.50
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
