S&P 500 volume failure underscored by long-term trends

Weekly Review: MAAD, CPFL indicator analysis

Daily S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

sp, emini, cumulative, volume

Weekly S & P 500 Emini Futures contract with Cumulative Volume (CV)

weekly, emini, sp, volume

While some of our short-term indicators such as Daily MAAD have been a bit more enthusiastic lately, it wouldn’t take much selling to reverse that optimism since Daily MAAD has also come nowhere near a resistance high made back on March 20. Although Daily MAAD was able to better its September 14 resistance high last Tuesday, ensuing strength has tended to quickly push the Daily MAAD Ratio back toward “Overbought” levels.

Index Daily / Weekly / Monthly Stops Weekly Monthly
 

12/17

12/18

12/19

12/20

12/21

12/21

12/31

S&P 500 Index

SELL 1407.21

SELL 1409.72

SELL 1413.36

SELL 1414.29

SELL 1414.35

BUY 1437.85

SELL 1293.26

Dow Jones Industrials

SELL 13100.74

SELL 13143.49

SELL 13084.95

SELL 13104.60

SELL 13115.68

BUY 13355.17

SELL 12313.37

NASDAQ Composite

SELL 2973.58

SELL 2979.04

SELL 2984.64

SELL 2984.22

SELL 2980.62

BUY 3053.48

SELL 2772.87

Value Line Index

SELL 3058.63

SELL 3066.86

SELL 3076.33

SELL 3080.07

SELL 3083.10

SELL 2983.83

SELL 2758.13

Note: Stop levels, a function of the extant trend, are based on the trailing moving average price channels for the Highs or the Lows of an index. Whether or not a specific index is suggesting a “Buy” or Sell” is determined by whether or not index prices are above or below the current channel Stop levels. Stop levels should only be used as an entry or exit guide and in conjunction with other market entry and exit strategies.

In sum, whether or not the current short-term trend has more room on the upside or not, what is important to keep in mind is the late September/early October Intermediate highs (1474.51—S&P 500). If those levels are exceeded with another round of buying, the long-term Cumulative Volume chart takes on increasing importance, given the proximity of CV resistance levels to current CV on the Monthly Cycle, and the recent historical failure of CV to underscore price strength. If new highs are not made, that same long-term CV chart will continue to negatively hover in the market’s statistical background. Clearly, the burden of proof remains with the bulls.

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