KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.53. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- February Brent Crude generated a daily bearish close reversal on Thursday as a mass shedding of risk markets across the board pushed prices back to where they began the week.
- Brent should make a move back a shade higher on Friday near the $108 mark as the sideways holding pattern continues heading into next week.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.70
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.73
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 87.56. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/06/12 @ 86.26. Downside Targets = 85.59 – 85.16.
- January WTI Crude Oil generated an inside compression day on Thursday with extremely low volatility as it too was dropped to back to unchanged on the week.
- The oil markets have been stuck in a state of limbo over the past six weeks and until a resolution to the U.S. fiscal cliff crisis appears, this market will continue to work sideways and lower until the end of the year.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.59
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (January ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
- New lows made on current move Thursday @ 3.293.
- January Natural Gas fell even lower on Thursday after a small build in supply inventory but held the pit-session lows on a retest and rallied to finish the day at the mid-range.
- With a range violation above Thursday’s high, natural gas could begin to see stochastic and rate of change measurements shift to bullish for a one week push higher to a minimum objective of $3.615.
- Projected Daily Range: .100
- Projected Weekly Range: .287
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
METALS
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 1718.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- February Gold followed through on Wednesday afternoon’s market analysis as it broke sharply lower in overnight trading down to retest the lows of last week and spent most of the pit session below the $1,700 mark.
- If gold trades through Thursday’s low, expect for the current Q4 lows to be violated and drop lower near 1653.40.
- Projected Daily Range: 16.20
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
Euro FX (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.2975. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.3004. Upside Targets = 1.3183 – 1.3245.
- New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1.3112.
- The March Euro FX finished Thursday’s session just a shade lower as it nearly generated a VRCB in a tight trading range ahead of the contract roll.
- The euro is once again showing signs of resilience to break through the highs of the past four months and will most likely have to wait until next week before it can break through 1.32
- Projected Daily Range: .0083
- Projected Weekly Range: .0219
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
E-Mini S&P (March ’13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/07/12 @ 1415.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
- Close < Low of the High Day generated on Thursday.
- The March S&P’s dropped significantly lower on Thursday to finish just a few points higher for the week as market trepidations are beginning to show as the fiscal cliff still does not have an answer in sight.
- Should the S&P’s close below 1409.75 on Friday it will confirm a ST top in the market and set up the possibility of a sharp move lower next week to new lows for the month and possibly test the 1350 area if a deal is not reached by the end of the week.
- Projected Daily Range: 15.75
- Projected Weekly Range: 37.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
