Oil works lower as fiscal cliff uncertainty continues

Daily Market Analysis (SHORT TERM) Friday 12/14/2012

METALS

COMEX Gold (February ‘13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 1718.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
  • February Gold followed through on Wednesday afternoon’s market analysis as it broke sharply lower in overnight trading down to retest the lows of last week and spent most of the pit session below the $1,700 mark.
  • If gold trades through Thursday’s low, expect for the current Q4 lows to be violated and drop lower near 1653.40.
  • Projected Daily Range: 16.20
  • Projected Weekly Range: 43.10
  • Projected Monthly Range: 94.70

CURRENCIES

Euro FX (March ’13):

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.2975. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.3004. Upside Targets = 1.3183 – 1.3245.
  • New highs made on current move Thursday @ 1.3112.
  • The March Euro FX finished Thursday’s session just a shade lower as it nearly generated a VRCB in a tight trading range ahead of the contract roll.
  • The euro is once again showing signs of resilience to break through the highs of the past four months and will most likely have to wait until next week before it can break through 1.32
  • Projected Daily Range: .0083
  • Projected Weekly Range: .0219
  • Projected Monthly Range: .0456

INDEXES

E-Mini S&P (March ’13)

  • Short Term Trends are bullish.
  • Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/07/12 @ 1415.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
  • Close < Low of the High Day generated on Thursday.
  • The March S&P’s dropped significantly lower on Thursday to finish just a few points higher for the week as market trepidations are beginning to show as the fiscal cliff still does not have an answer in sight.
  • Should the S&P’s close below 1409.75 on Friday it will confirm a ST top in the market and set up the possibility of a sharp move lower next week to new lows for the month and possibly test the 1350 area if a deal is not reached by the end of the week.
  • Projected Daily Range: 15.75
  • Projected Weekly Range: 37.00
  • Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
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About the Author
Kris Hicks

KMH is a trading and technical analysis firm that specializes in commodity futures and commodity based ETF’s. Kris Hicks has worked for numerous years in the commodity business and in 2011 accurately forecasted both $25 moves to the downside in May and July and the $25+ move to the upside in October in oil. He also called the all-time high day for gold on Sept. 6, 2011 and forecasted a projected downside target of 1528.10 in March 2012. He was also responsible for projecting the Q2 and Q4 low in the Euro FX to within 13 and 9 ticks, respectively. His trading methodology has a high degree of accuracy which confirms tops/bottoms, projected trading ranges and projected targets for those ranges. His expertise is focused on 16 commodities plus the comparable ETF markets. You can reach Kris at Kris@KMH-Capital.com or visit his website at www.KMH-Capital.com.

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