KEY TERMS
OVB Outside Vertical Bar
VRCB Volatility Reduced Compression Bar
Euro FX (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.2975. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/11/12 @ 1.3004. Upside Targets = 1.3183 – 1.3245.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1.3099.
- The December Euro FX carried on its bullish momentum on Wednesday thanks to comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke signaling they will keep the fed funds rates low until most likely mid-2015 and institute additional easing following Operation Twist that pushed the USD lower for most FX markets.
- The Euro may see a bit of an early drop as its ST rate of change and price action are signaling overbought indicators before resuming its rally early next week to push through to new highs since early May of this year.
- Projected Daily Range: .0084
- Projected Weekly Range: .0219
- Projected Monthly Range: .0456
COMEX Gold (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 1718.90. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/12 @ 1718.80. Downside Target = 1707.20 – 1694.70
- February Gold traded just a single tick through last week’s high on Wednesday following the announcement of an extension of the low fed funds rate and additional MBS purchases as Operation Twist winds down.
- Gold was unable to sustain the early momentum heading into the close of the day as it last traded back below the daily-mid-range, setting up for a possible failure on Thursday if the market trades below $1706.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.90
- Projected Weekly Range: 43.10
- Projected Monthly Range: 94.70
E-Mini S&P (December):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/07/12 @ 1415.00. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 11/20/12 @ 1386.25. Upside Targets = 1404.00 – 1420.00.
- New highs made on current move Wednesday @ 1438.75.
- The December S&Ps moved higher in early trading on Wednesday to new eight-week highs on comments from the FOMC announcing they will tie interest rates to unemployment and purchase additional MBS before falling to new lows on the session going into the close as all eyes returned to pessimistic comments regarding the fiscal cliff.
- The fiscal cliff continues to be the thorn in the side for many investors trying to manage risk and although the market has seen a nearly 100 point rally in the S&P over the past month, if politicians in Washington are unable to strike a deal in the next seven business days, the market will begin to shed its gains rapidly going into the new year and possibly break the November lows.
- Projected Daily Range: 14.25
- Projected Weekly Range: 37.00
- Projected Monthly Range: 81.50
ENERGIES
Brent Crude Oil (February ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a bottom with a range violation on 12/12/12 @ 107.53. Confirmation of a bottom with a close violation on 12/12/12 @ 108.02. Upside Targets = 110.67 – 111.37
- February Brent Crude moved significantly higher in mid-day trading on Wednesday as the announcement of further Fed easing helped push down the USD and raised most risk markets before settling considerably off the day’s high.
- While markets initially appeared to love the move from the Fed, all eyes were back on the fiscal cliff negotiations toward the end of the day and Brent was no exception, signaling a probable “give-back” of the Wednesday’s gains on Thursday as the market remains stuck in the up-and-down trading cycle.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.64
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.73
- Projected Monthly Range: 9.03
WTI Crude Oil (January ‘13):
- Short Term Trends are bullish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 12/05/12 @ 87.56. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 12/06/12 @ 86.26. Downside Targets = 85.59 – 85.16.
- Close > High Of the Low Bar generated on Wednesday.
- January WTI Crude Oil tried to burst open higher on Wednesday following the FOMC announcement but had the same fate as other risk markets and closed just above the daily mid-range, still generating its best day in almost 2 weeks.
- WTI’s price action indicates a retracement back lower on Thursday near $85.77 as the backing and filling continues.
- Projected Daily Range: 1.68
- Projected Weekly Range: 4.38
- Projected Monthly Range: 8.74
Natural Gas (January ‘13):
- Short Term trend is bearish.
- Confirmation of a top with a range violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.840. Confirmation of a top with a close violation on 11/28/2012 @ 3.801. Downside Targets = 3.746 – 3.708.
- VRCB generated on Wednesday making new lows on the current move @ 3.366.
- January Natural Gas dropped lower on Wednesday to make new lows, the current move in a compressed trading range signaling that buying support and selling pressure have begun to neutralize each other.
- The market has shown a reduction in range volatility every day this week as it enters the support area where natural gas broke out to the upside from in late September, signaling that a turnaround should be looming heading into next week and could push as high as $3.803.
- Projected Daily Range: .103
- Projected Weekly Range: .287
- Projected Monthly Range: .557
