Oil driven by fundamentals; economic reports

I am maintaining my view and bias at cautiously bearish as the fundamentals are now biased to the bearish side as well as the technicals. At the moment there is still no shortage of oil anyplace in the world and a portion of the risk premium from the evolving geopolitics of the Middle East is continuing to slowly recede from the price of oil. In the short term the price of oil is still very susceptible to sudden price moves based the 30 second news snippets. However, the fundamentals, the markets view of the global economy, the US fiscal cliff negotiations and less so the geopolitics will be the price drivers in the short term pretty much in that order. This is still an event driven market for oil at the moment.

I am maintaining my Nat Gas price direction at cautiously bearish as the fundamentals and technicals are still suggesting that the market may be heading lower for the short term. I anticipate that the market is now positioned to test the lower end of the trading range... even after last week's bullish inventory snapshot. As I have been discussing for weeks the direction of Nat Gas prices are primarily dependent on the actual and forecasted weather pattern now that we are in the early stages of the winter heating season and currently those forecasts are all still mostly bearish.

Markets are mostly higher into the U.S. trading session as shown in the following table.

Best Regards,

Dominick A. Chirichella

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